The former boss of Sainsbury’s, Justin King, warned on the Today programme this morning that Rachel Reeves has damaged the economy through her constant warnings of tax rises to come in October’s budget, causing anxious shoppers to draw in their horns until the big day. But if shoppers really are holding off purchases for fear that the Chancellor will raid their savings or hit them with tax rises there is scant sign of it in the Office for National Statistics’ (ONS) retail sales figures for August. They show that sales volumes increased by 1.0 per cent over the course of the month. July’s figures were also revised upwards from a 0.5 per cent increase to a 0.7 per cent increase. Clothing retailers had a particularly good month, with sales up 2.9 per cent; food store sales followed with a rise of 1.8 per cent.

Retail sales figures can be very volatile, but the longer-term statistics are looking good, too. Over the course of the past three months sales are up 1.2 per cent (there was a fall in June), while sales in August were 1.0 per cent higher than in the same period last year. This is beginning to look like the first sustained rise in retail sales since 2021, which shouldn’t altogether come as a surprise as inflation is back to levels close to the Bank of England’s target and real incomes have been rising at a fair rate – following a sustained contraction in real incomes.

So is Reeves really frightening the horses by talking up the prospect of tax rises? If you are wealthy, perhaps yes. There are widespread predictions that she will jack up the rate of capital gains tax, perhaps equalising it with income tax. There is strong talk that she will reduce tax relief paid by high earners on their pension contributions, perhaps limiting it to 20 per cent even for higher rate taxpayers. There are rumours, too, of changes to corporation tax. These cannot all be described as tax rises for the wealthy – the 40 per cent income tax rate now hits middle earners, whose pay packets will suffer if pension tax relief is limited to 20 per cent. Nevertheless, there is a powerful narrative that Reeves will concentrate her fire on tax loopholes enjoyed mostly by the rich. Talk of non-doms leaving the country is not going to frighten your average shopper, whatever the longer-term consequences for the economy.

Is Reeves frightening the horses by talking up the prospect of tax rises?

Against that, the one fiscal measure which Reeves has effected so far is the removal of winter fuel allowance for all pensioners other than those on Pension Credit. That is a measure which very much does strike ordinary people – at least a sizeable group of them – and ought to sow doubts that Reeves really will restrict her Budget tax rises to the well-off.

There is also the dark cloud of energy prices – Ofgem’s price cap is to rise again in October – and there is widespread disbelief that Energy Secretary Ed Miliband’s policy of trying to decarbonise the grid by 2030 will really save us each £300 a year, as he claims; quite the opposite. But for the moment, household finances are improving, and that is showing up on the High Street. We will have to wait until 30 October to find out whether that is likely to be sustained.