An irresistible force is keeping Ukraine’s membership of Nato infuriatingly out of reach. Everyone, not least Ukraine, wants to see it happen … but it’s still not happening. It’s like that infamous sign on an outback pub: ‘Free Beer Tomorrow.’
In 2021, Zelensky sat in the Oval Office, meeting with President Joe Biden during an official visit to the US, and he told reporters he planned to press his American counterpart on the question of Ukraine’s ‘chances to join Nato and the timeframe’. No timeline or further commitment came out of the meeting.
Months after the invasion, in a November 2022 interview for a book about Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelensky, Ukraine’s Ambassador to Australia, Vasyl Myroshnychenko, told this writer: ‘As for Nato, I believe the only security we can get is Nato membership; there is no alternative. And had we got it sooner, Russia would never have been able to invade us.’ Perhaps he should have said, ‘Russia would never have dared to invade us.’
Will tomorrow ever come?
April 25, 2023, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine Minister for Foreign Affairs made it clear: Ukraine did not choose this battle. Nor did the United States and its Nato allies. Russia started this war. But it falls to Ukraine and its Western partners to bring the conflict to an end, winning a just victory that guarantees peace and stability in Europe for generations to come. Doing so requires accepting the inevitable: that Ukraine will become a Nato member, and sooner rather than later.
July 12, 2023, BBC: Nato states have said Ukraine can join the military alliance ‘when allies agree and conditions are met’ after President Volodymyr Zelensky criticised the ‘absurd’ delay to accession. In a communique, Nato said it recognised the need to move faster but would not be drawn on a timeframe.
July 10, 2024, CBS: Nato nation leaders, in a Washington summit declaration released Wednesday, said Ukraine is on an ‘irreversible path’ to Nato membership. The summit declaration, signed by all 32 Nato nations, offers some of the strongest language yet about the organisation’s intent to eventually include Ukraine in its membership.
In the September 21, 2024 edition of The UK Spectator, Boris Johnson says it’s time to let Ukraine join Nato. Some 18 months earlier, in the March 1, 2023 edition of The Spectator Australia, this writer said the same thing.
Both writers provide details of how this might be done, referring to specific articles in the Nato treaty. What neither writer is able to do, however, is deconstruct the mindset of Western leaders who drove the weapons-for-Ukraine bus with the handbrake on.
Johnson (a former editor of The Spectator) remains confident:
‘There is a way of doing this. We could invite Ukraine to join before the war is even over. That is because we could extend the Article 5 security guarantee to all the Ukrainian territory currently controlled by Ukraine (or at the end of this fighting season), while reaffirming the absolute right of the Ukrainians to the whole of their 1991 nation. We could protect most of Ukraine, while simultaneously supporting the Ukrainian right to recapture the rest. There is plenty of scope within the Nato treaty to do this. See Article 6, which specifies that countries can be members even if the security guarantee does not apply to all of their internationally recognised territories.’
That’s not very different to this writer’s opinion, ‘The plan could be something like this: Nato Council meets urgently (Article 9) and agrees that it is accepting and fast-tracking Ukraine’s application (Article 10). Simultaneously, Nato confirms that as soon as Ukraine is officially a member (subject to any undertakings Nato requires), it will be entitled to its protection (Article 5). Ukraine has only to request such help.’
Johnson asks rhetorically, ‘Can anything like this happen? It certainly can, but it depends on us, on Nato, and above all on America.’ There’s the rub.
The Biden administration talks the talk but its hesitant drip-feeding of weapons to assist Ukraine were as much a hindrance as help. It invites ridicule. Biden, according to a confidential source, was given bad advice at the start.
And here we are… ‘Nato Membership tomorrow.’
Andrew L. Urban is the co-author of ‘Zelensky – the unlikely hero who defied Putin and united the world’ and ‘Volodymyr Zelensky the front line President’ (Wilkinson Publishing).
