On Thursday, November 21, Russia, in an escalation of its war with Ukraine, fired a new kind of missile at the city of Dnipro in eastern Ukraine. Ukraine accused Russia of launching an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). According to the Ukraine and Defence Editor for Tortoise Media, this weapon is ‘designed for use with nuclear warheads and normally considered an instrument of Armageddon’.
Russia’s launch of an ICBM is, however, not a novel event. Indeed, China launched an ICBM in September 2024 to evaluate the capabilities of this weapon. Australia, Fiji, Palau, and New Zealand criticised this war-like activity. The United States also produces ICBMs, which one commentator refers to as the ‘sword of Armageddon’.
Is the launch of an ICBM weapon really a precursor to Armageddon? The answer to this question depends on the characteristics of this weapon and the ability of the military to restrain its uses.
The primary role of ICBMs is to speedily deploy nuclear weapons to the intended target. It is a type of missile that can carry nuclear or conventional warheads. Its distinctive characteristic is that the weapon exits the Earth’s atmosphere and re-enters with high speed and precision. Its speed can reach seven kilometres per second which makes it impossible to eliminate by surface-to-air defensive missiles. Hence, the defence against ICBM is limited to nonstop monitoring of movement of high-speed and high-altitude objects, requiring an immediate response. The second lethal characteristic of ICBM is that it can carry multiple warheads and, therefore, hit numerous targets, meriting its description as a ‘multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle’ or MIRV.
The characterisation of ICBMs as a precursor to ‘Armageddon’ is reminiscent of a single reference in the Bible. The New Testament refers in the Apocalypse of St. John (Revelation 16:16) to ‘Armageddon’ as the last battle between good and evil before Judgement Day. This battle between the forces of good and evil is a catastrophic event that is likely to destroy Earth and/or humanity.
In Hollywood, the term ‘Armageddon’ commonly depicts end-of-the-world scenarios. Disaster movies follow a tried-and-true Hollywood formula in which the planet is saved by a blockbuster star. A 1998 film which was actually named Armageddon followed a group of drillers sent by Nasa to destroy a gigantic asteroid on a collision course with Earth.
The military’s ability or willingness to restrict, or rigidly control, the use of this formidable weapon could be assessed in the context of its use in Putin’s ‘special military action’ in Ukraine. Russia, in firing an IBCM violated the intermediate-range nuclear forces (INF) treaty, adopted in 1987. The United States withdrew from this treaty with Russia in 2019 because Russia allegedly violated the treaty.
Although the ICBM launched by Russia did not carry nuclear weapons, it does signify a significant and potentially dangerous escalation of the war. Hence, it is not surprising that military experts have been analysing the trajectory and precision of the launched missile.
What led to Russia’s brazen demonstration of military power?
The outgoing President of the United States, Joe Biden, approved the use of American-made long-range missiles, previously deployed to Ukraine, on targets within Russian territory. The United Kingdom and France also authorised, on November 17, the use by Ukraine of British Storm Shadow missiles and French Scalp missiles to strike deep within Russia. The following day, Russia warned that it had changed its military doctrine to justify the use of nuclear weapons and that, if its territorial integrity were endangered, it would not be averse to using them if Nato or Ukraine crossed a ‘red line’. Disregarding this threat, on Tuesday, November 19, Ukraine used British Storm Shadow missiles and American ATACMS missiles to hit a military compound inside Russia. On the same day, the United States and other countries announced that they had closed their embassies in Kyiv. On Thursday morning, November 21, Russia launched its ICBM on military facilities in the city of Dnipro. No casualties have been reported and there has only been scant news about the damage inflicted.
The claim that the launch is the precursor to Armageddon, however, needs to be based on a dispassionate, objective consideration of the chain of events that led to the ICBM launch. Why?
When Russia launched its ICBM on November 21, the United States registered the launch with its radar and satellite systems. Since ICBM is a high-velocity object, an immediate reaction is needed because the missile can reach almost any target within 15 minutes.
It can be assumed that, in accordance with applicable command control procedures, President Biden would have been notified immediately about the Russian ICBM launch. The American President would only have had a few minutes to decide on retaliatory action. As the United States did not retaliate in this case, it is reasonable to believe that the Russian military had notified their counterparts in the United States that it planned to launch the ICBM at Ukraine, and not at any other country.
Russia does not have an ambassador in Washington and, hence, officially, there is no communication between the Kremlin and the White House. However, if Russian military authorities had notified their United States counterparts prior to the ICBM launch, trustworthy lines of communications must still exist. If so, the American counterparts who received the message obviously believed that the ICBM would only be targeted at Ukraine, and not be carrying nuclear weapons. Indeed, if the United States had doubted the veracity of the Russian representations – if they were made – it may well have authorised retaliatory action to thwart Putin’s aggressive war against Ukraine. Provided this interpretation of the chain of events is correct, it may be concluded that there are still clearheaded professionals in sensitive military positions who understand the consequences of the use of ICBMs. If so, they may well have concluded that the chain of events leading up to the launch discloses that Russia’s firing of an ICBM is not a precursor to Armageddon, but rather a warning to Ukraine’s allies.
Thus, Armageddon has not arrived yet. The world will need to wait until Hollywood launches a new apocalyptic film about a fearless American saving single-handedly the planet from destruction. If so, it can be expected that audiences will leave the movie theatre believing humans can avert great disasters that threaten the very existence of Earth, and have the capacity to develop, in a brief time, the technology, knowledge, and tools needed to effectively insulate the world against Armageddon.
Gabriël A. Moens AM is an emeritus professor of law at the University of Queensland. He served as pro vice-chancellor and dean at Murdoch University. In 2003, Moens was awarded the Australian Centenary Medal by the prime minister for services to education. He has taught extensively across Australia, Asia, Europe, and the United States.
Dejan Hinic is a financial and investment expert operating from Belgrade, Serbia. He received his law degrees from the University of Belgrade and the University of Queensland.