Germany is still a divided country – at least when you look at its electoral map. After this weekend’s federal election, the east of the country is coloured in the light blue of the hard-right Alternative for Germany (AfD), while the west is dominated by the black of the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU), with scattered green and red spots that show where the Greens and the Social Democratic party (SPD) have maintained their left-wing hold on the cities. One third of all voters were undecided just one week before the election. That shows how many voters felt dissatisfied with all the parties.
As expected, the CDU did best in the election, achieving 28.5 per cent of the vote, above the AfD on 20 per cent. However, the CDU shouldn’t celebrate yet. The party polled at 33 per cent back when Merkel was in charge. To get under 30 per cent of the vote when the incumbent SDP-Green-FDP government was so hated and voter turnout was a record 84 per cent really is an underperformance for the party.
The truth is that their leader, Friedrich Merz, is now in a tricky position. He will likely go into a ‘grand coalition’ with the SPD. As the populist-left BSW failed to reach the 5 per cent threshold to enter parliament, he is less likely to need to partner with the Greens as well, in a so-called ‘Kenya’ coalition after that country’s flag (black-red-green)
Even so, Merz will struggle to balance his coalition partner’s very different views on the economy and on immigration. When he announced plans to ditch dual citizenship for criminals, SPD party leader Saskia Esken was quoted as saying, ‘he would make naturalised citizens second-rate citizens’. The SPD will also be against any reform of the Bürgergeld welfare system it introduced, even though around half of it is paid to foreigners. If Merz does have to go into coalition with the Greens too, it will be hard to lower sky-high energy prices given the party wants to double-down on net zero.
One surprising area where they might come to a mutual understanding, however, is the lowering of the public debt brake. Introduced in 2009 after the global financial crash, it is supposed to lower public borrowing, but it has been blamed for low rates of investment. It was suspended during Covid and again after Russia invaded Ukraine but its reinstatement last year helped to collapse the old government and usher in this election. Merz wants lower taxes but he knows Germany needs growth, so he has said, ‘I am used to saying never say never in politics.’ With Europe having to stand on its own two feet when it comes to defence after Vice President JD Vance’s speech in Munich, the new German government will also need to open its wallet.
On the left of German politics, Olaf Scholz’s SPD has seen its share of the vote decline to 16.4 per cent, losing some of its voters to a newly rejuvenated Die Linke (‘The Left’). The far-left Die Linke had a successful last minute social media blitz to save the party, which initially looked like it wasn’t going to reach the 5 per cent hurdle needed to enter the Bundestag. It eventually reached 8.6 per cent. The SPD also lost some of its core working-class voters to the AfD, including in West Germany. Only 8 per cent of working-class voters believe the SPD can solve the country’s problems.
Last but not least, the elephant in the room: the AfD. The party has achieved its best ever result, doubling its share of the vote since 2021 to reach 20 per cent. The party was the most popular choice for first-time voters, with 20.5 per cent of those casting their ballot for the first time backing the AfD.
It seems unlikely though that the AfD will enter government. The CDU rowed back on the idea of forming a coalition with the AfD after they passed an anti-immigration motion with AfD votes and there was a huge media backlash. Merz has vowed publicly never to work again with the AfD. Although as Konrad Adenauer, the founding father of the CDU, famously said, ‘What do I care about my chit chat from yesterday?’
In the end it seems like almost any kind of coalition is possible – except the right-wing government that Germans actually voted for. Even though two right wing parties – the CDU and the AfD – received 49 per cent of the vote and a majority of seats combined in Parliament, the CDU’s refusal to join a coalition with the AfD means the will of the voters will be frustrated and important reforms made impossible.
A CDU coalition with two left-wing parties will likely fail to reduce immigration or improve the economy. Merz then faces a difficult choice: he can either persuade a coalition with the left to deliver reforms they don’t want. Or he can make an alliance with the AfD and face a meltdown by the entire political elite, including his own party.