A pragmatic ‘reset’ or a ‘surrender summit’? The spin has already started ahead of today’s big UK-EU jamboree at Lancaster House. Three main items are expected to be announced today: a security pact, a declaration on global issues, and a ‘common understanding’ of future topics to be negotiated. Expect plenty of the greatest hits from the Brexit years: cries of ‘betrayal’, talks going ‘down to the wire’ and endless cliches about how ‘nothing is agreed until everything is agreed.’ As with every negotiation, there are likely to be both winners and losers from today’s conference.
A defence deal is likely, enabling greater co-operation and, potentially, further UK access to EU databases too. Britain’s main ask is for its defence companies to be able to bid for contracts under the EU’s new re-armament scheme – ‘Security Action for Europe’. The French want to severely restrict non-EU companies while the Nordics, Baltics and Germany favour greater openness. Future defence talks between the UK and EU will likely be put on a more structured basis too.
Holiday-makers look set to be a winner too. The surprise revelation in the Sunday Times that Britain has secured access to EU E-gates, could help cut looming summer passport queues. However, that comes at a price: Jonathan Reynolds, the Business Secretary, has confirmed this morning that the UK will be signing up to a youth mobility deal for students and others under 30. Numbers will be capped – but Reynolds refused to tell broadcasters the number.
Ed Miliband’s team appear to have also achieved their goals. Britain looks set to merge with Europe’s emissions trading schemes, under which companies can buy and sell permits for their level of carbon emissions. The government says that this will serve a dual purpose: reducing households bills by operating at scale and boosting the net zero transition.
Among the likely losers are British fishermen, with the existing arrangements in Boris Johnson’s Brexit deal due to expire next year. Paris has led demands that the UK now grant a new, very long deal on fishing rights while London is insisting on just four or five years. The EU’s response was to use the bargaining chip of checks on the sale of food, animal and other agricultural products. The UK wants these lifted; Brussels argues that fish should be pegged to the same timescale.
A more surprising loser is the UK university sector. European students will receive a discount on the current international fees they paid to attend UK universities. Currently, one in eight overseas students is from the EU: if they pay fees closer to the £9,250 demanded of UK undergraduates, it will hit many struggling universities. The UK is also likely to rejoin the Erasmus student exchange scheme and scrap the entry fee levied on EU nationals for using the NHS.
The bulk of today’s business will be concluded this morning. The summit starts at 10:15 a.m, ahead of a press conference at Lancaster House at 12:30 p.m ahead of a classic slap-up lunch on the Thames. After that, it will be back to the spin wars as Starmer tries to sell his big Brexit ‘reset.’
