The SNP may be in crisis, with police investigating the use of party funds and support from voters sliding, but the current General Election campaign obliges leader John Swinney to pretend everything in the garden continues to bloom.
Launching the Nats’ manifesto in Edinburgh on Wednesday, the First Minister acted as if his scandal-scarred party was still the unstoppable force it once seemed to be. On 4 July, if Scots wanted independence, then a vote for the SNP was the way to achieve it, he said. Victory in a majority of Scottish seats would, said Swinney, mean a mandate for him to ’embark on negotiations with the UK government to turn the democratic wishes of people in Scotland into a reality’.
Swinney was keen to tickle the tummies of the true believers
The most unquestioning of Scottish nationalists might buy this stuff, but to anyone else it’s patently nonsense.
On the day Rishi Sunak called the General Election, the nationalists held 41 of 59 Scottish constituencies. Every poll published this year shows the SNP dropping seats (there will be 57 in the next parliament following boundary changes). Not even Swinney seriously believes the nationalists’ can lose MPs next month and claim the result as a victory for independence.
The SNP could win every seat and that still wouldn’t give Swinney a mandate to begin independence negotiations. The Scottish government has spent a fortune establishing in court that the power to hold a referendum on the constitution lies firmly with Westminster. If, post 4 July, Swinney tells prime minister Keir Starmer that he has a mandate to begin negotiations on independence, Starmer will be entitled to reply ‘No, you don’t’ and that will be the end of that.
Of course, Swinney’s promise to his supporters – and this was a message for the most loyal Nats – was carefully worded. Is a negotiation to ‘turn the democratic wishes of the people of Scotland into a reality’ the same as a negotiation to break up the Union or a negotiation to establish a referendum? No, it’s not.
The SNP manifesto launch was pitched at the original fanbase, at those nationalists who were around in the pre-success days. With his party losing support to Scottish Labour and Alex Salmond, now leader of the Alba party/vanity project, harrying his former colleagues for failing to progress the independence cause, Swinney was keen to tickle the tummies of the true believers.
Beyond promising things he will not be able to to deliver on the constitution, Swinney’s big pitch to voters was on the NHS. If Scots got behind SNP candidates, they’d campaign at Westminster for the next government to increase spending on the NHS.
Nationalist MPs, said Swinney, would pressure the UK government to invest at least another £6billion in the NHS to match recent pay deals struck with healthcare staff in Scotland. The SNP also wants a boost of NHS spending in England of at least £10billion-a-year to ‘address rampant inflationary pressures and improve performance’.
Now, because you’re a clever cove, you will be asking what business it is of the SNP how any UK government chooses to run the NHS? Health is fully devolved to Holyrood. Every aspect of the NHS in Scotland is under the control of the Scottish government.
The reason Swinney wants this extra spending in England is because it would have financial consequences for Scotland. The Barnett Formula, drawn up in 1978, is the mechanism the Treasury uses to calculate and distribute funds across the UK. Scotland benefits disproportionately from Barnett. In 2018/19, for example, public expenditure per head in England was £9,296, while in Scotland it was £11,242. The SNP wants to make the most of Barnett to fill Holyrood’s coffers.
The First Minister’s message to voters as polling day approaches is a masterclass in inconsistency. Vote SNP for independence, says John Swinney, but also to enjoy the fruits of the Union.