The Irish general election happens on Friday. In times past, observers would be marking the rise of Sinn Fein; now the interest has shifted to the parties that are challenging the political consensus. Irish politics can seem weirdly homogenous – with the main parties, in terms of culture, roughly equivalent to the Lib Dems and the wetter end of the Tory party, though in some respects (when it comes to wokery) similarities with the SNP spring to mind.
The two big legacy parties from the Civil War, Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil’, manifestly have more in common than not. In the main leaders’ TV debate on Tuesday night between Sinn Fein’s Mary Lou McDonald, Fianna Fáil’s Micheál Martin and Fine Gael’s Simon Harris, the Taoiseach, Mary Lou identified the other two as TweedleDee and TweedleDum to make just that point about them being indistinguishable. Trouble was, she used that gag in the last election, so it fell flat. But the thing about Dum and Dee is that they may be in competition, but they prefer each other’s company way more than Sinn Fein’s. Even though these three parties are jostling for around a fifth of the vote each, neither Fianna Fáil’ nor Fine Gael would go into coalition with Sinn Fein. They at least remember that party’s past.
The other feature of that debate, incidentally, was the extent to which it avoided the most contentious underlying issue of all: immigration.
But I’d say the interest is in the smaller parties, those pushing for, or pushing against, the transformation of Ireland into a kind of Kamala Harris polity writ small: woke, secularist and chilled about those record immigration levels.
On that lefty end of the spectrum there are the smaller parties – Ivana Bakic’s Labour, People Before Profit, the Social Democrats and the Greens.
Abortion is a useful marker of cultural outlook; so, as in Britain, is euthanasia; ditto trans issues and the secularisation of Irish schools.
On all these issues, these left-wing small parties are all similarly culturally liberal (or woke, or progressive; take your pick) with People Before Profit more radical than the others (it favours abortion on demand without time limits). Sinn Fein is on the progressive end of the spectrum on social issues; on the trans question it favours ‘Implementing a new and holistic model of care for gender identity services’. You can make what you like of that.
At the other, socially conservative end of the spectrum are two parties: Aontú, led by Peadar Toibín; and the Independents, including Independent Ireland which Joanna Bell wrote about in last week’s Spectator. Independent Ireland is a bit like Fianna Fáil was once: rural and traditional in their values. All the independents together could get up to a fifth of the vote. Independent Ireland, the organised element, has three TDs but could easily double that; it’s doing well in Kerry. Toibín’s Aontú could get two or three seats; he’s at present a one-man show in the Dail, the Irish parliament. It’s possible that either or both of these groups could enter into coalition with one or probably both the main parties.
What these conservative groups have in common is a cautious approach to immigration – in which they’re more representative of Irish opinion than the big three – and a socially traditional outlook on all the above-mentioned issues, including protecting women-only spaces. Aontú is a bit more left-wing in its approach; Toibín is former Sinn Fein, and on abortion the party favours offering women state benefits during pregnancy, to avoid abortion for economic reasons. It also wants to encourage Irish emigrants to return home with incentives: Operation Shamrock.
So in this election, give a thought to these issues and these parties. It’s the cultural and social elements of the manifestos that will shape the country more than the big parties’ economic programme (though if you’re interested, Sinn Fein has a decidedly relaxed approach to the country living within its means). Remember, Aontú was almost alone – except for independents – in seeing off that bid by the big parties to change the Irish constitution earlier in the year so as to remove the reference to the place of women in the home. That was a blow to the liberal consensus; it turned out it was the pundits who were out of touch.
Let me put down a marker for the next bit of the culture wars, which will again be about the Irish constitution. The Labour party’s manifesto wants to amend the God bits of the constitution; the preamble in Eamon De Valera’s 1937 version is full-on Christian and begins: ‘In the name of the Most Holy Trinity, from Whom is all authority and to Whom, as our final end, all actions both of men and States must be referred’.
Labour promises to establish a joint committee on constitutional change to consider proposed wording for amendments on the place of faith in the constitution, including the preamble and religious oaths for office holders. This aspect of the constitution affects no one; it has no practical effect except to put the constitutional project in a Christian context. But it is plainly a big deal if you’re a committed secularist.
I can tell you right now that if there is a joint committee it will be composed of the kind of people who take it as read that Christianity is very much not what contemporary Ireland is about. It’s like citizens’ assemblies; you get out what you put in, when it comes to the makeup and leadership of these bodies.
But I wonder – I really do – if a referendum on the issue would go quite the way the secularists want. It may be one of these moments where, if people are presented with the option of getting God and Christianity out of the constitution and replacing it with some secularist guff about universal values, they might very well say that they’ll keep the Christianity, thank you. And when it comes to this issue, my money is on Aontú and Independent Ireland to be more in touch with popular sentiment than the big parties.
Let’s see, meanwhile, how this poll turns out. A good showing for Labour/Greens/PBP and the Social Democrats will signal a cultural turn to the left. If it’s the conservatives who sign up with a Fianna Fáil/Fine Gael coalition, they may be the tail to wag the government dog. Taoiseach Simon Harris may get more than he bargained for in calling this snap election.
