The reaction of Marine Le Pen and her party to the stunning triumph of Donald Trump was curiously flat. Emmanuel Macron tweeted his congratulations to the 47th President of the United States early on Wednesday morning, an hour before there was any reaction from Le Pen, the woman who had once been proud to liken herself to a Gallic Trump. When it came, Le Pen’s message was tepid. She wished him ‘every success’, and added: ‘This new political era should contribute to the strengthening of bilateral relations and the pursuit of constructive dialogue and cooperation on the international stage.’

Le Pen has distanced herself from Trump for a while now

Contrast her message with that of another so-called European populist, Geert Wilders, who could barely contain himself: ‘Patriots are winning elections all over the world,’ exclaimed the Dutchman. ‘The liberal-leftish woke driven nihilists are full of disbelief and hate and unfit to give the people what they truly want: freedom and their own nation first.’

Le Pen’s No. 2, Jordan Bardella, who appears to move more to the centre with every passing day, also seemed underwhelmed by Trump’s triumph. ‘For us, the French and Europeans, this American election should be a wake-up call,’ he declared on X. Bardella went on to list what the focus should be now: ‘Proactive and pragmatic energy policy, protection of our interests and identities, European preference in defence, the fight against unfair international competition, support for our industry, agriculture and digital technology.’

It was an extraordinary declaration, one that could have come from the lips of the arch Europhile himself, President Macron.

The reaction of Éric Zemmour, on the other hand, echoed that of Wilders. ‘I wish all the best to the Americans who have chosen civilization over wokeism, decline and the deconstruction of their identity,’ said Zemmour, the leader of the right-wing Reconquest party.

Le Pen has distanced herself from Trump for a while now, unlike those heady days of 2016 when she saw herself as belonging to a triumvirate of anti-system mavericks: herself, Trump, and Nigel Farage.

She reacted to Trump’s election in 2016 with glee. ‘The American people gave themselves a president they chose, not one that an installed system wanted them to validate,’ she said. ‘The angry American people have given the elites a lesson in freedom… like in Great Britain with the Brexit and like what will happen in France in 2017.’

That year was the presidential election, and although Le Pen reached the second round – replicating the feat of her father, Jean-Marie, in 2002 – Marine was comfortably beaten by Emmanuel Macron in the run-off.

She underwent a substantial makeover after that defeat, emerging in 2018 with a softer image – the gardener and the cat breeder – and the head of a party that had changed its name from the National Front to the National Rally.

In response, Le Pen’s father wrote her an open letter, warning her it would be a mistake to become too mainstream. ‘You lead a party… which the powers-that-be vilify but which has embodied the hope of the French people,’ he told her.

Desist from trying to make the party more mainstream, said Jean-Marie Le Pen. ‘Claiming to be de-demonising today is moreover a tactical error, at a time when the people, tired of being deceived by revolutionary elites, are freeing themselves from the tutelage of political correctness, in America, Austria and elsewhere in Europe.’

Marine Le Pen deployed her strategy of ‘de-demonisation’ shortly after she replaced her father as head of the party in 2011. It has been successful in the sense that she has increased the party’s MPs from two in 2012 to 126 in this summer’s parliamentary elections.

She exerts a rigid control over what those MPs say and even how they dress, in what is known as the ‘policy of the tie’. In parliament she expects jackets and ties for the gents and chic blouses for the ladies. ‘The National Rally looks at what the mainstream codes are and adopts them,’ explained the political scientist Jean-Yves Camus in a recent interview. ‘It’s a strategy that undoubtedly smoothes out the party’s image.’

These mainstream codes now extend to being influenced by how the Paris political and media elite regard parties, such as the AfD, and figures like Donald Trump. Le Pen severed ties with the former earlier this year, and she now takes a cooler attitude to the American president – all in the ravenous pursuit of respectability.

But Le Pen is playing a dangerous game. Her appeal for millions of working-class voters is that she is perceived as being outside the system that in 2016 she so despised. If this perception changes, and Le Pen is seen to move too far to the centre, she will alienate her core electorate who will stay home in the 2027 presidential election, nursing their sense of betrayal.

Ultimately, the difference between Marine Le Pen and Donald Trump is that she cares what people think about her, and he doesn’t. She craves respectability; he doesn’t give a hoot what the mainstream media think. The Trump rhetoric of 2024 has changed little from that of 2016; Le Pen’s has changed a great deal. She now sounds like every other mainstream French politician.

Over the years Le Pen has been called many things – from ‘fascist’ to ‘racist’ to ‘anti-Semite’; none of which are true. What is harder to dismiss, however, is the mockery from her father during an interview with the Times in 2012.

‘I’m a man of the people,’ explained Jean-Marie Le Pen. ‘I come from a family of farmers and fishermen… my daughter, whatever she may say, is a petite bourgeoise.’

The key to Trump’s success is his immutability. No makeover, no rebrand, no surrender to the chattering classes. He remains outside the system. Le Pen now has one foot inside the system. It may make her palatable to polite society, but it won’t boost the popularity of the ‘petite bourgeoise’ among the people who matter – the men and women who look to her as the antidote to the elite.