After three years of the worst government in Australian history, it isn’t the cost-of-living crisis, the divided society, the reduced productivity, the poor defence stance, or the increased public spending ailing Albanese.
It’s not even Tony Burke’s spurious use of citizenship ceremonies to try to save a sinking ship.
It is Albo breaking his own promise to return integrity to politics that has knocked him out of the next federal election.
The polls are showing that voters prefer Opposition Leader Peter Dutton as the next Prime Minister. I would argue that the Coalition’s primary vote is still too low in the polls to win government, however, Treasurer Jim Chalmers is likely sharpening the knives for the infamous back-stab à la Keating and Hawke.
When Hawke reneged on the Kirribilli pact of 1988 after winning the 1990 election, his time as leader was done. But in 1983, he had beaten Malcolm Fraser in a landslide victory, despite becoming leader of the ALP only the month before the election was held. Fraser had tried to call an early election to lock-in Bill Hayden as the ALP leader but failed to do so. As Fraser was so unpopular, Hayden said that:
‘I believe a drover’s dog could lead the Labor Party to victory, the way the country is.’
The same might be said of the Albanese government. Labor have tried in recent years to replicate Hawke’s last-minute electoral success. Julia Gillard tried after knifing Kevin Rudd but only managed to pull together an unwieldy minority government that soon suffered from Rudd’s payback. The last-minute leader trick failed miserably.
Indeed, Tony Abbott’s landslide victory at the 2013 put paid to that idea.
The minimum campaign period of 33 days makes for a fast-paced shouting match of off-the-hip policy. With the final date for an election now May 17, there is still time for Labor to enact its infamous Brutus play. While it worked for Hawke against an unpopular Liberal Prime Minister, it has not worked as planned when used against an incumbent Labor Prime Minister.
The rumblings in the Labor ranks have been evident for some time, despite Albanese’s uncanny ability to hold Labor together from his left-faction base. With former Labor leader Bill Shorten gone, the ALP right is probably weaker than it has ever been. Even though Chalmers is of the right, it is difficult to see how he could get the support of the majority of the Labor caucus.
From a leadership perspective, if there is one thing Albo has done well, it is in keeping the ALP together from the Left. Picking Chalmers as Treasurer may well have placated the right enough to keep the Brutus tools away. So far.
But Shorten’s former chief of staff, Cameron Milner, writing some five months ago, said of Albo’s performance under pressure:
‘Labor MPs watched on in horror as the PM slipped and slided, then snarled and chided reporters for the impunity of asking about yet another broken Albo promise.’
Albo will now come under immense pressure. Not because he is driving the cost-of-living crisis we didn’t have to have, or because he is weak on defence, but because he broke yet another of his promises. Albo vowed to:
‘…restore the public’s trust and faith in government, its institutions, and the political system more broadly.’
But on Tuesday, after holding a cocktail party and including the Climate 200-funded Teals non-party party independents on the invitation list, Albo knocked himself out, politically.
Albo has even given Teal MP Zali Steggall an extra staff member ahead of what many believe to be a future hung Parliament.
In response to a question about the allocation of an additional staff member for Steggall, Trade Minister Don Farrell replied:
‘I don’t personally make those decisions. Those decisions are made by the Prime Minister.’
Not even the recent interest rate cut will save Albo. The latest Resolve poll has the Coalition leading Labor 55-45 on a two-party preferred basis.
Again, with the Coalition primary vote historically needing to be above 41 per cent for them to win, it is probably too early to start polishing your wallet to receive all the disposable income you’ll have after Labor stops spending your money. But there is hope.
Voters can see right through the Prime Minister. Not only did we not get our $275 saving on energy bills, even after we received electricity subsidies we funded ourselves, but now Albo is straight out showing his true colours as a typical politician.
With Albo now on the ropes from his own knockout blow, don’t be surprised if we see a last-minute leadership spill. Hopefully that will see the end of Labor in power, and we can all get back to enjoying the living standards ordinary Australians have worked so hard to create.
Dr Michael de Percy @FlaneurPolitiq is a political scientist and political commentator. He is a Fellow of the Royal Society of Arts, a Chartered Fellow of the Chartered Institute of Logistics and Transport (CILTA), and a Member of the Royal Society of NSW. He is Editor-in-Chief of the Journal of Telecommunications and the Digital Economy, Chairman of the ACT and Southern NSW Chapter of CILTA, and a member of the Australian Nuclear Association. Michael is a graduate of the Royal Military College, Duntroon and was appointed to the College of Experts at the Australian Research Council in 2022. All opinions in this article are the author’s own and are not intended to reflect the views of any other person or organisation.
