The world is once again at a crossroads. With Donald Trump’s political resurgence and Vladimir Putin’s territorial ambitions, a disturbing trend is emerging – one where borders are merely suggestions and sovereignty is at the mercy of power politics. From Trump’s musings about acquiring Greenland and annexing Canada to Putin’s relentless aggression in Ukraine, we are witnessing an era where strongmen leaders treat nations as pieces on a geopolitical chessboard. The question is, who’s next?
Trump’s Global Real Estate Hunt
Trump, never one to shy away from outlandish claims, has revived his fascination with Greenland – an Arctic prize rich in resources and strategic positioning with regard to the opening up of new sea routes for trade as the ice cap melts. His casual remarks about Canada, however, have struck a deeper nerve. Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau is not laughing. And why should he? Trump’s erratic policy-making and history of disrupting alliances make it all too easy to imagine him floating the idea of a ‘North American consolidation’ – with Canada’s critical minerals and vast natural resources too tempting to ignore.
Then there’s Panama. Why does the US President keep bringing it up? Control of the Panama Canal has long been an obsession of American power, and in an age of global trade warfare, Trump might see it as a lever against China’s growing economic presence in Latin America. China’s Belt and Road Initiative has quietly spread through the region, investing in infrastructure, ports, and trade routes. Could Trump be planning a Monroe Doctrine 2.0, using military or economic muscle to push back against Beijing’s influence? If so, Panama could be the first of many regional flashpoints.
Gaza: The Forgotten Powder Keg
While much of the world’s attention is focused on Ukraine and the Pacific, Gaza remains a key geopolitical tinderbox. Trump’s past policies in the region – moving the US embassy to Jerusalem, brokering the Abraham Accords, and cutting aid to Palestinians – suggest that he could escalate tensions further. If Trump throws uncritical support behind Israel while ignoring the humanitarian crisis in Gaza and goes forward with his Riviera plans, the region could explode into wider conflict, drawing in Iran, Hezbollah, and other actors.
Meanwhile, both Russia and China are using the Gaza crisis as leverage. Putin has positioned himself as a critic of Western interventionism, using the conflict to sow discord among US allies in the Middle East. China, on the other hand, has diplomatically aligned itself with Palestinian causes, courting favour in the Global South and deepening its ties with energy-rich Gulf states. If Trump continues to pursue his usual brand of transactional diplomacy, expect the region to become even more volatile.
Putin’s Carve-Up Continues
While Trump dreams of real estate acquisitions, Putin is playing a far bloodier game. His war in Ukraine rages on, a testament to his belief that Russia’s borders should be dictated by history rather than international law. Despite bipartisan support in Washington for Ukraine, Trump’s ambiguous stance on the war suggests that he might cut a deal with Putin – one that sacrifices Ukraine in exchange for Russian neutrality in America’s looming confrontation with China.
But Putin is not an easy partner. If Trump weakens Nato from within as he is currently doing especially in the wake of the recent Trump-Zelenskyy debacle in the White House, Russia gets a free hand in Eastern Europe. If Trump prioritises conflict with China, Putin might demand greater concessions – perhaps a weakened US presence in the Baltics, a rollback of military aid to Ukraine, or even tacit recognition of Russian control over occupied territories and continuation of bases in Syria. Far from a loyal ally, Putin could very well play Trump against China, extracting maximum benefits while keeping his options open.
China Watches – and Worries
Beijing is no passive observer in this unfolding drama. If Trump tries a ‘reverse Nixon’ strategy – allying with Russia to contain China – the world could see a bizarre realignment. But China is already moving to prevent isolation. Xi Jinping has strengthened ties with Moscow, ensuring Russia remains at least a nominal partner. But make no mistake: China is no friend to Russia in the long run. Siberia, rich in resources and sparsely populated, remains an unspoken temptation for China’s expansionist ambitions. If Putin grows too weak or too reliant on Beijing, China might set its own terms.
Meanwhile, China is expanding its foothold in the Pacific. The Solomon Islands, Papua New Guinea, and other Pacific nations are seeing increased Chinese investment, security deals, and even the potential for military bases. This directly threatens US and Australian influence, making the Pacific Islands a likely battleground – not for war, but for economic, diplomatic, and strategic control.
North Korea: The Wild Card in the Chaos
Amid this geopolitical reshuffling, North Korea lurks as an unpredictable force. Kim Jong-un has long played a balancing act between Beijing, Moscow, and Washington, leveraging his nuclear arsenal for diplomatic and economic concessions. With Trump 2.0, the world could see a revival of the bizarre love-hate dynamic between the two leaders. While Trump boasts of his past ‘friendship’ with Kim, history shows that North Korea does not play by anyone’s rules. If Trump shifts US focus toward countering China, Kim may grow even closer to Putin, strengthening the Russia-North Korea military relationship that has already begun to blossom with arms deals and technology transfers. Meanwhile, China remains wary of a too-independent Pyongyang – Beijing prefers a controlled, obedient North Korea, not a rogue actor that could destabilise the region. If tensions escalate in the Pacific, Kim could exploit the chaos, launching provocations to test US resolve or even striking a deal with Russia for military support in exchange for energy and resources. A distracted, divided world only empowers Pyongyang, making North Korea a critical wild card in the unfolding global power struggle.
And Then There’s Australia…
Which brings us to a quiet but important question: Where does Australia fit into this global turmoil?
Canberra has spent decades balancing its Western alliances with its economic dependence on China. But as the US-China rivalry intensifies, Australia finds itself increasingly pressured to pick a side. If Trump continues his current foreign policy madness in the White House and Nato fractures, will Australia be left more vulnerable in the Indo-Pacific? Where does it leave Aukus?
The stakes are high. If Trump reignites his trade war with China, Australia – heavily reliant on Chinese exports – could find itself collateral damage. If the Pacific becomes a proxy theatre for US-China tensions, Australia may be forced into deeper security commitments, including expanded Aukus agreements, hosting more US bases, and increased defence spending with no guarantee that America would come to its aid without giving up a sizeable chunk of its resource-rich lands (as currently being transacted with regard to satisfying preconditions to Trump negotiations to end the Ukraine-Russia conflict).
Australia has long punched above its weight in global diplomacy, but its strategic ambiguity is running out. Canberra will soon have to decide: double down on the US alliance, or hedge its bets and try to maintain a more independent regional role?
The Forgotten Players: Europe, India, Japan
One risk in framing global power as a purely Trump-Putin-China struggle is that it ignores the agency of other major players. Europe, India, and Japan are not passive observers; they have their own stakes in this shifting world order.
Europe: If Trump weakens Nato, Europe will be forced to rearm at an unprecedented rate. France and Germany, once skeptical of military expansion, may have no choice but to take on a greater leadership role.
India: New Delhi has long pursued strategic autonomy, balancing ties with the US, Russia, and China. If Trump realigns with Russia, India might find itself in a tricky position – forced to choose between its traditional Russian arms supplier and its growing partnership with Washington. It may opt for stronger European linkages to harness a more neutral stance.
Japan: With China’s aggression in the South China Sea and Taiwan Strait, Japan has already begun military expansion. A weakened US alliance under Trump could push Japan further toward military self-reliance, possibly even revisiting its pacifist constitution.
The Road Ahead
What we are seeing is not merely the return of great power competition, but a dangerous mix of transactional politics, territorial revisionism, and global instability. The world no longer operates on a stable, rules-based order; instead, it seems to be shifting toward a model where the powerful take what they want and the weak must fend for themselves.
The question is no longer whether Trump and Putin will continue redrawing the global map – it’s who will stop them. And as for Australia, the time for strategic hedging is running out.
The 21st Century’s power struggle is well underway. The only question left is: Who gets carved up next?