Emmanuel Macron appeared on French television last week and spoke for three hours without saying anything of interest. It was a damning indictment of his eight years in office. The country is up to its eyes in debt, ravaged by insecurity and overwhelmed by immigration, but Macron told the country that none of it is his fault. On the contrary, the President scolded the French for being ‘too pessimistic’.
The disdain is mutual. A poll conducted in the wake of the President’s interminable television interview found that 71 per cent of the people consider him to be a ‘bad’ president. As to the idea that Macron might stand for re-election in 2032 (the French constitution precludes an incumbent serving three consecutive terms), 84 per cent of people expressed their opposition to the idea.
Yes, Retailleau says, mass immigration has not been a success
‘Macronism’ is on its last legs and the question for France is what follows. The polls indicate that the National Rally are still favourites for the 2027 presidential election, but rumours are growing that all is not well within the party. Marine Le Pen is in political limbo after a judge ruled in March that her punishment for misusing EU funds is a five-year disqualification from politics. Her appeal will be heard in the summer of 2026 and Le Pen is confident she will be exonerated.
But in the meantime? The party’s president, Jordan Bardella, appeared on television and described himself as the ‘plan B’, causing some of the National Rally’s senior lieutenants to ‘choke’ with astonishment. Was this Bardella beginning to ease Le Pen out of the frame?
The left is not in much of a position to gloat over the tribulations of the National Rally. The coalition formed a year ago during the campaign for the legislative election is cracking, with the centre-left Socialists troubled by the radicalism of many within the far-left la France Insoumise. At a recent rally in Paris, the Jewish Socialist MP Jerome Guedj was chased away with cries of ‘Zionist bastard, get out!’.
If, as Macron claims, the French are pessimistic, it is because of the political class. Never has there been such a dearth of talent across the spectrum. Macron, often described as a ‘spoilt child’, has turned parliament into a playground.
This in part explains the rise of Bruno Retailleau in recent months. A long-serving Republican senator, the 64-year-old was named Interior Minister last September when former prime minister Michel Barnier was asked to form a government. Barnier didn’t last long as prime minister and his successor, Francois Bayrou, has been equally impotent, but Retailleau’s popularity continues to soar.
This is because he tells the truth. Yes, Retailleau says, mass immigration has not been a success, and it is one of the reasons crime is so rampant. He wants a referendum on immigration – as do the majority of the country – and it is said that his conservative views make Macron ‘ashamed’.
They don’t make Republicans ashamed. That proof came on Sunday, when the party’s members nominated Retailleau their new president. He thrashed his challenger, Laurent Wauquiez, winning 74 per cent of the vote, and in his acceptance speech, Retailleau expressed his belief that all was not lost for the Republican party.
Eighteen years ago they were the dominant force in French politics with 345 MPs out of 577 in the National Assembly; today they have sixty. Like the Tories, the Republicans believed what mattered most was pleasing the chattering classes. They moved to the centre, embraced mass immigration and the rest of the progressive dogma that swept the West in the 2010s. Retailleau promises to return the Republicans to the right. ‘I think that what gives structure to political life is convictions,’ he said on Sunday evening.
The left-wing Le Monde reacted to his victory with the headline: ‘Anti-immigration minister Retailleau becomes leader of French conservatives’. There are other reasons the left hate Retailleau; he is a practising Catholic, a man opposed to gay marriage and assisted dying. As is the wont of some of the French media, Retailleau is now described in some quarters as ‘extreme right’.
It won’t only be the left who are troubled by the rise of Retailleau. His growing influence is also a problem for the National Rally, regardless of whether Le Pen or Bardella runs for the presidency in 2027. In the last three years the National Rally has attracted significant support from two demographics that were traditionally hostile: the retired and white collar graduates. This is largely down to Bardella, who is more economically liberal than Le Pen and isn’t burdened by the family name.
Retailleau will seek to lure these voters back to their former home – the Republicans – while also reaching out to the legions of the disillusioned centre right who feel betrayed by Macron. He will do this by portraying himself as the antidote to the President and also to Bardella. Both rely heavily on image: dapper men who communicate best on social media. Style but little substance.
Retailleau looks like a maths teacher, but he insists that what he lacks in style he makes up for in substance. He has two years to convince voters he is the man to solve France’s myriad problems.