The state is bigger than ever. The number of workers employed in central government has hit 4 million for the first time. Figures just released by the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show employment in the public sector hit 6.14 million in December, up 53,000 in a year. Employment in central government hit a record high and was up 105,000 in a year. Those employed by the NHS hit a record high too, of over 2 million, and was up by nearly 50,000 in a year. Yet, as Katy Balls and I point out in today’s cover story for the magazine, productivity has not kept pace.
Meanwhile, the unemployment rate in the whole economy was steady at 4.4 per cent in January, in a relief for Rachel Reeves, as survey data had suggested her £25 billion raid on National Insurance was having a deterrent effect when it comes to hiring. However, the tax hike doesn’t kick in until next month, so the negative effects could still feed through.
Vacancies, in fact, remained flat in the three months to February at 816,000 – a little above pre-Covid levels and, having been falling for years now, ONS statisticians believe they may have even increased slightly in the latest period.
There was bad news elsewhere in the labour market, though, with those out of work due to long-term sickness rebounding 41,000 to just over 2.8 million people. It remains to be seen whether the changes to the welfare system announced by Liz Kendall this week will do anything to help these people and get that staggering figure down.
Elsewhere, the Bank of England will announce at midday whether they have decided to cut interest rates, which currently stand at 4.5 per cent. Despite growing concerns in Threadneedle Street about the absence of growth in the economy, markets and analysts are all expecting rates to be held because of fears around resurgent inflation.
The wage growth figures, also released by the ONS this morning, will not have assuaged those fears, with average pay up 5.8 per cent. Adjusting for inflation, that means the average worker has experienced a real-terms pay rise of 2.1 per cent. The Bank wants to see wage growth properly slowing down before they consider sustained cuts to rates.
While public sector employment and wages continue to rise, questions remain over productivity. The record-high numbers in the government’s employ contrast with stagnant economic growth and lingering inflation concerns, reinforcing the fundamental issue: a growing state that isn’t getting any more efficient.