The end is in sight. The polls have closed. On Saturday, the result of the Tory leadership contest will be announced. Both Robert Jenrick and Kemi Badenoch are adamant that the race is closer than polling suggests. What’s making backers of the bookies’ favourite Badenoch nervous is the number of undecided voters throughout this contest, with most anticipating a turnout lower than the 82 per cent of Tory members who voted in 2022. The general view is that Badenoch is picking up support in London and the South but the race is tighter in the North.
Whoever wins, the victor faces an uphill task on funding, campaigns and staffing. In the aftermath of July’s election defeat, and a drop-off in party donations, Conservative Campaign Headquarters (CCHQ) has been forced to cut back on staff numbers. Meanwhile, there aren’t that many Conservative MPs to choose from when it comes to building a crack team. With the parliamentary party totalling 121 MPs, it won’t be hard to get a job. Arou=und 100 frontbench posts will need to be filled to shadow the government, with some MPs likely to have multiple roles. Both candidates have suggested they will offer roles to the leadership contenders who failed to make the cut.
So, what will Loto (the office of the Leader of the Opposition) look like if Jenrick or Badenoch triumphs? Below is a guide to the runners and riders for the key posts in each team.
Team Badenoch
Kemi Badenoch has repeatedly said she is not going to trade job promises for MP support. Yet it’s still possible to have a sense of who she is likely to want to hug close. Elected in 2017, the shadow housing secretary has long surrounded herself with a group of like-minded Conservative friends from her fellow intake who are likely to all hold prominent positions. These include Alex Burghart, Andrew Bowie and Julia Lopez.
Shadow chancellor: Badenoch has plenty of backers with Treasury experience. Runners and riders include Andrew Griffith, who previously served as financial secretary and prior to parliament had a successful business career, including serving as Chief Operating Officer at Sky.
Another contender is Claire Coutinho, the shadow energy secretary, who worked for Sunak when he was in the Treasury. However, she is said to be enjoying her current energy brief. One of Badenoch’s other key endorsers is Laura Trott, shadow chief secretary to the Treasury. However, she may lean towards a brief focussed around public sector reform.
Chief whip: With only a third of Tory MPs committed to Badenoch’s cause, the post of chief whip will assume a special importance in opposition. Some names that have come up in conversation include Alex Burghart – who served as one of Boris Johnson’s PPSs and has taken a lead role on the campaign. Then there’s Joy Morrissey – the MP for Beaconsfield who has experience as a government whip – as do Stuart Andrew and Graham Stuart.
Chief of staff: This is the most senior role for a non-politician and the expectation is that it could go to Lee Rowley should he want it. Rowley is a former 2017 intake MP who ran Badenoch’s campaign. The son of a milkman, he is a socially liberal free-marketeer who held a succession of junior posts under four Tory premiers. Passionate about housing, he was well liked in parliament.
Other ex-MPs set to be tapped for policy commission roles include Rachel Maclean and Mark Jenkinson and perhaps Simon Clarke. Badenoch boasts a loyal team of special advisers who have served her both in government and now throughout this campaign.
The long time Badenoch media aide Dylan Sharpe, who previously worked for Theresa May’s 10 Downing Street as head of broadcast before a stint with HS2, is expected to continue to work on her communications. James Roberts has been key to Badenoch’s parliamentary engagement over the past 18 months too.
Given Badenoch’s interesting relationship with the media, could she be tempted to bulk up her team with some former hacks to help build relations?
Team Jenrick
The former immigration minister first became a contender at the end of last year, following his resignation from Sunak’s government over the Rwanda Bill. Much of his support in parliament thus comes in the form of new-found friends on the right of the party.
Shadow chancellor: Neil O’Brien could be an option for shadow chancellor, or Jenrick could look to have a woman in the role to balance out his team. One of his big endorsements came from Victoria Atkins. Another name mentioned is Mel Stride.
Shadow home secretary: Given Jenrick has run on an immigration ticket, this is a key post. Danny Kruger, the MP for East Wiltshire, could be one to watch along with O’Brien, if he is not picked for shadow chancellor. Both share Jenrick’s thinking on migration which would be central to his leadership.
Other key shadow briefs could go to the Scot MP John Lamont and Ed Argar, whose endorsement the campaign heralded early on as proof Jenrick was winning support across the party.
Party chairman: This post has been publicly promised to Jacob Rees-Mogg. Could he be joined in the role by an elected politician? The name Matt Vickers – who quit as deputy chair to publicly endorse Jenrick – has also been mentioned too.
Chief of staff: The current holder of the role is Jack Lewy, a former special adviser to Jenrick at Housing and who went to work for Bain Capital. Tom Milford is tipped for a deputy role, having worked for Jenrick in various capacities since 2021. These appointments would be a sign of Jenrick rewarding loyalty.
Sam Armstrong, who previously worked for the 2019 group of ‘New Conservatives’ and at the Henry Jackson Society, is likely to have a key role when it comes to media engagement.
