For the first time ever there are seven million migrant workers in Britain’s job market. Figures released by the ONS this morning show that more than one in five jobs in Britain is now filled by someone born overseas – despite a fall in EU workers since Brexit. Overall, that’s an increase of 183,000 – equivalent to a town the size of Warrington or a city the size of Southend – since the election, and up over one million since the first lockdown.

The rest of this morning’s ONS release suggest the jobs market could be about to face a slowdown. The ONS stats show employers reducing hiring. Above inflation pay rises for once in demand workers are nearing an end. Unemployment is up from 4 per cent to 4.3 per cent – higher than most economists had expected.

Pay growth – excluding bonuses – slowed to its lowest rate in over two years. When bonuses were included in the stats the rate increased but the ONS say this is because of one-off payments made to public sector workers last year in part to end various strikes. Once the much lower inflation than we’ve experienced over the last few years is taken into account this equates to pay rises of 1.4 per cent on average with manufacturing jobs experiencing the fastest pay increases.

Meanwhile, the number of job vacancies was down by 35,000 and has now fallen for 28 consecutive months. If a similar fall is reported next month then the number of available jobs in the economy will have returned to pre-lockdown levels. The slowdown in hiring is clear to see.

In more bad news, those out of work due to long-term sickness remains at a near record high of 2.8 million people. That figure even seems to be going up again after falling slightly over the last few months. In turn, the ‘claimant’ unemployment count went up too, highlighting the need for the government to tackle the issue of long-term joblessness if it does not want to continue to rely on record high immigration.

Perhaps concerningly, the slowdown in the jobs market comes before Rachel Reeve’s business tax rises come into effect. Employers are braced for rises in National Insurance contributions which the Office for Budget Responsibility says will reduce employment and economic activity. If employers’ worst fears are realised it’s easy to see what happens next.