The Queensland government’s bold leadership in defunding the Environmental Defenders Office might seem out of step with the values of young Australians. After all, climate change is supposed to be the defining issue for Gen Z, isn’t it?

We’ve heard the warnings. We’ve seen the school strikes. Eco-anxiety is on the rise, with a 2021 study in The Lancet finding that more than a third of teens and young adults are hesitant to have children due to climate-related fears. And over the past decade, younger voters have steadily boosted support for The Greens, giving the party its strongest-ever foothold among millennials and Gen Z.

But something appears to be shifting.

Support for the Greens among 28-34-year-olds dropped from 27 to 23 per cent in the last quarter of 2024, according to Resolve polling. At the last federal election, The Greens lost three of their four seats in the House of Representatives. While they still hold the balance of power in the Senate, the momentum may no longer be on their side.

The reason? Affordability.

As the cost-of-living crisis bites, idealism is giving way to pragmatism. A recent poll commissioned by the Institute of Public Affairs found that 54 per cent of 18-24-year-olds believe affordability should be the government’s top energy priority. A strong majority of 55 per cent also support pausing Australia’s Net Zero commitments until the energy grid is secure enough to avoid blackouts.

Even more telling: 58 per cent said they wouldn’t pay more than $50 a year to meet climate targets, and 90 per cent said they wouldn’t pay more than $100 per year. Nearly one in five wouldn’t pay a single cent. Significantly, when asked about the impact of mandating greater wind and solar on household energy bills, more than half of 18-24-year-olds agreed that it was increasing the cost over time.

This is a generation that talks the talk on climate – but when it comes to footing the bill, enthusiasm quickly dries up.

There’s also a noticeable gender divide on this issue – though not in the direction many would assume. Women were more likely than men to prioritise affordability in energy policy: 58 per cent of women ranked it as their top concern, compared to 53 per cent of men.

This should come as no surprise. Electricity bills have almost doubled between 2021 and 2025, and they are projected to keep rising. Cost-of-living pressures are uniting Australians across gender and age divisions. Only the very wealthy will be insulated from such price shocks. This presents both challenges and opportunities for Australia’s political leaders and will remain a key issue at the ballot box.

Despite claims that renewables like wind and solar are cheaper, soaring power prices suggest otherwise. If the upward trend continues, public scepticism will grow, and support for Net Zero – and the Greens – may falter.

Research by the IPA estimates that the total system cost of a renewables-based energy model may be two to three times that of one relying on baseload sources such as the current system or nuclear. A purely renewables-driven system could be five or six times more expensive.

This is largely due to the massive costs of transmission upgrades and the construction of new networks required to support wind and solar generation. What this means for consumers is if the transmission component of their monthly bill was $100 today, it could increase to $240 by 2030.

That’s far more than young Australians say they’re willing to pay.

If support for costly climate initiatives continues to decline, and if enthusiasm for the Greens wanes with it, we may see more governments following Queensland’s lead and cutting back support for climate-focused agencies.

There’s a cultural tension at play here too. Generation Z has been dubbed the ‘activist generation’, shaped by social media campaigns, climate marches and an education system which has taught them to be deeply anxious about climate change. But slogans don’t pay electricity bills, and young people have been handed a stagnating economy that cannot support a costly energy transition.

As the economist Thomas Sowell famously said, ‘The first lesson of economics is scarcity: There is never enough of anything to satisfy all those who want it. The first lesson of politics is to disregard the first lesson of economics.’

The broad-based prosperity that Australia has enjoyed is giving way to a more uncertain, financially constrained future. In such an environment, it will become increasingly difficult to sell the Net Zero agenda – particularly if electricity bills continue to rise.

As young voters enter adulthood, their political choices will become more grounded in practical realities than idealism – a shift that may reshape Australia’s climate politics in the years ahead.

Brianna McKee is a Research Fellow and the National Manager of Generation Liberty at the Institute of Public Affairs.