Expert Analysis By International Executive with Multiple Financial and Auditing Degrees and Years of Experience Confirms 85/15 Percent Ratios in 2026 Election Social Media Post Shared by President Trump

Expert Analysis Confirms 85/15 Percent Ratios in 2026 Election Social Media Post Shared by President Trump.

Joe Hoft is a former International Audit and Finance Executive who performed hundreds of audits around the world, oversaw the financial reporting of multi-million and billion-dollar entities, and participated in board, audit, risk, and executive committee meetings in multiple countries and continents.

A post shared by President Trump on Truth Social on Saturday shows a consistent pattern in the results of the 2026 midterm election in 59 Senate and Governor races across the country.

THE 15% BAND

Look at this chart.
59 races. Senate and governor.
States ordered from reddest to bluest in 2024.

The solid lines are 2024.
The dashed lines are 2026.
The shaded bands are what moved.

One formula fits all of it:
Republican 2026 = 0.85 × Trump 2024
Democrat 2026 = Harris 2024 + 0.15 × Trump 2024

For every 1,000 Trump points, 850 stayed Republican. 150 landed on the Democratic side.

The numbers:
Senate: Republicans kept ~85% of Trump’s share
Governor: ~86%

Variation explained: 88%

What makes it strange:
It didn’t matter how red the state was. Wyoming, Ohio, Illinois, Massachusetts: same 15% (p = 0.69). The Democratic gain was sized by Trump’s vote, not Harris’s. The Harris part is zero.

The 0.85 beat both standard election-swing models in every set of races.
Drop any single state and the multiplier stays between 0.846 and 0.853.

Why seats flipped:
At 0.85, any state where Trump got under about 58.5% falls below 50%. Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio, South Carolina, North Carolina: all under that line. All flipped.

What this means:
Midterms are messy. This one isn’t. Two sets of races, different candidates, different campaigns, and the same 15% decrease almost everywhere.

A pattern this even demands answers at the ballot level: paper ballot hand counts, poll-book check-ins against votes counted, and voter files showing who actually turned out.

The numbers raise the question.
The ballots can answer it.

— Truth Is Freedom (@TruthAnswersAll) November 6, 2026

A pattern is not expected, and its presence is concerning and likely indicates wrongdoing.

The data in this post was analyzed using AI. The analysis supported the tweet.

State
Trump 2024 Votes
0.85 Ã— Trump 2024
Current Senate R Votes
Shortfall vs 0.85Ã—
Senate R %
Notes

Wyoming
192,633
163,738
122,157
41,581
65%
Held

West Virginia
533,556
453,523
266,067
187,456
58%
Held

Oklahoma
1,036,213
880,781
639,860
240,921
57%
Held

Arkansas
759,241
645,355
480,800
164,555
54%
Held

Kentucky
1,337,494
1,136,870
784,000
352,870
55%
Held

Alabama
1,462,616
1,243,224
917,860
325,364
55%
Held

Tennessee
1,966,865
1,671,835
1,138,436
533,399
55%
Held

Louisiana
1,208,505
1,027,229
745,961
281,268
51%
Held

South Carolina
1,483,747
1,261,185
951,896
309,289
47%
Flipped

Kansas
758,802
644,982
505,558
139,424
46%
Flipped

Texas
6,393,597
5,434,557
4,249,373
1,185,184
43%
Flipped

Iowa
927,019
787,966
630,615
157,351
46%
Flipped

Florida
6,110,125
5,193,606
4,211,455
982,151
51%
Held (special)

Ohio
3,180,116
2,703,099
2,077,748
625,351
45%
Flipped (special)

North Carolina
2,898,423
2,463,660
1,643,114
820,546
39%
Flipped

Georgia
2,663,117
2,263,649
1,712,587
551,062
41%
Held

Michigan
2,816,636
2,394,141
2,177,618
216,523
45%
Held

Minnesota
1,519,032
1,291,177
1,233,465
57,712
44%
Held

Virginia
2,074,097
1,762,982
1,380,564
382,418
38%
Held

New Hampshire
395,523
336,195
268,559
67,636
42%
Held

Illinois
2,449,079
2,081,717
1,486,964
594,753
37%
Held

Colorado
1,377,441
1,170,825
932,096
238,729
35%
Held

New Jersey
1,968,215
1,672,983
1,023,674
649,309
35%
Held

New Mexico
423,391
359,882
266,434
93,448
37%
Held

Oregon
919,480
781,558
719,926
61,632
39%
Held

Delaware
214,351
182,198
137,764
44,434
36%
Held

Rhode Island
214,406
182,245
105,346
76,899
29%
Held

Summary

The data shows a consistent and sizable shortfall: in nearly every state, the 2026 Republican Senate candidate received substantially fewer votes than 85% of Trump’s 2024 total. The shortfalls range from tens of thousands in small states to over a million in Texas. This is larger than a simple “85% of Trump” rule would predict in most places.

Is there a pattern?

Yes. The pattern is fairly uniform underperformance relative to the 85% threshold.