During February this year, Angus Taylor gave his first press conference as the new Liberal leader, presenting a stark warning that the Liberals must ‘change or die’. Nine months later, the party’s behaviour seems set on the latter, with their idea of ‘change’ struggling to compete against One Nation and its rising popularity.
That rise is no accident. It is a result of the Liberals refusing to acknowledge that One Nation is no longer just a ‘nothing party’ but instead is replacing them. Rather than face this, their strategy seems to include positioning themselves as the pragmatic counter to One Nation, hoping it collapses so the Liberals can win back their old voters.
I remember attending CPAC Australia last month. Whenever a Liberal MP spoke, they consistently framed their party as the ‘right’ and more reliable party. It was obviously a ploy aimed at One Nation, almost in a manner that ignored that they were an actual political party worth considering.
In my view, Angus Taylor’s speech illustrated this attitude, stating: ‘A changed and better Liberal Party – together with the Nationals – remains the most credible alternative government to deliver the change our country desperately needs.’
MPs like Dan Tehan also said, ‘The Liberals and Nationals will scrap Net Zero and prioritise cheaper power.’
It’s a pitch that assumes the Liberals are the only conservatives on offer, when One Nation is already making the same promise. Though Taylor didn’t avoid Pauline Hanson altogether, he did take a subtle side-swipe, saying, ‘Strong government isn’t built around one figure. It’s built around a plan and a credible team.’
The Liberals’ attitude, resembling a type of elitist self-pride mindset, has not gotten them anywhere. Recent RedBridge/Accent polling has put One Nation at 28 per cent and the Liberals/Nationals at 25 per cent.
I believe the Liberal Party sees their key selling point as pragmatism, based on the belief that their policies will carry them to victory. Taylor emphasised that by saying, ‘There’s much work the Coalition must do to win your confidence. But with the policies I’ve announced tonight – and the vision I’ve outlined – I hope you can begin to believe again.’
The reason this hasn’t landed with voters is that voters know they have a new alternative conservative party that challenges them. But once again the Liberals fail to come to terms with the fact that One Nation isn’t the party it was 20 years ago when it was primarily a populist force without strong ‘policies’.
An article recently released by Ronald Mizen in the Australian Financial Review echoes this shift, highlighting how One Nation is attracting ‘seriously deep-pocketed backers’ – something that doesn’t happen to a party that is merely, as many critics like to suggest, a ‘fringe party’. The article highlighted how Chris Taylor, One Nation’s new chief of staff and known as a banking lobby heavyweight, and Pauline Hanson sat down with people from think tanks, alongside investors and economists. The article went on to suggest that one major investor, who was apparently reluctant to take the meeting, was glad he ended up doing it, stating, ‘She’s going to be a bit of a vessel for many, many ideas.’ The article further highlights how Chris Taylor has ‘recruited two other colleagues from the major bank lobby group, Maxwell Pryor and Alexander Bourne’. The Liberals have tried to position themselves as the only party with the serious policies and governance. That isn’t and won’t hold up for much longer, as what One Nation is starting to assert with the recent backing from credible sources shakes what Liberals have been leaning on.
This decline in trust for the Liberal Party isn’t anything new, but has been weakening since late in Tony Abbott’s term. Whilst the rise of right-wing third-party systems, like Reform UK and National Rally from France, has picked up around the globe, all of them share the rhetoric and policy ideas that traditional conservative parties have ignored or failed to put into practice. The failure of the Liberals in Australia shows this more specifically, in the clear bubble they have put themselves in, which consists of not listening to voters.
That internal bubble is dramatically different from One Nation, where in the AFR article the anonymous investor stated that, ‘If people put good ideas to her, she’s receptive.’ The Liberals, by contrast, act like an out-of-touch party and think they know what’s best, which was evident when the loudest cheer at CPAC went to Pauline Hanson, who said One Nation ‘will work with the Liberals and Nationals’. An hour later, Taylor was booed for side-stepping the question after being asked multiple times if he would work with One Nation. Angus was told what the voters wanted, but he didn’t listen.
The strategy that the Liberals are using should make sense considering One Nation’s rise and fall and dramatic rise again, with candidates and policies traditionally being in some ways unqualified and/or on the fringe side of the booted old Liberal members. That strategy doesn’t work in 2026, with Pauline Hanson and One Nation not only getting credibility, but also establishing themselves as, if not the most important player in Australian politics.
As the popularity and credibility of One Nation continue to rise, it does not gain the Liberal Party any more votes from the already defected traditional Liberal voters.
Saying you hear the concerns of Australians does not win votes when the Liberals’ actions continually go against what voters want.
Although One Nation still needs to prove itself capable of governing, the Liberals’ mentality shows no sign of changing. The Liberals’ strategy of hoping One Nation will fall, and believing it is just a minor party with no influence or pull, is what will get them walloped, not just in polling but at the election. Taylor warned that the party must change or die. If it keeps waiting for its rival to collapse, it may be the one that does.
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