Rachel Reeves delivered her spending plans for the next three years less than 24 hours ago, but already the credibility of the Chancellor’s plans are in doubt. GDP fell by 0.3 per cent in April, according to figures released this morning by the Office for National Statistics (ONS). It spells the end of a run of more positive economic readings that Reeves had hoped would buy her room to manoeuvre in the run up to the Autumn budget – when she will have to explain to the Office for Budget Responsibility, and the nation, how her spending review sums add up.

The economy contracted across both services and manufacturing with legal firms and estate agents ‘fairing badly’ because of a sharp increase in house sales in March as home buyers and sellers raced to complete their transactions before the stamp duty thresholds increased. The car industry had a particularly bad month too, while the construction industry faired slightly better; it grew by 0.9 per cent.

Reeves has woken up to the first flashing warning light on the dashboard

Over a three-month window, there was much better news: real GDP grew by 0.7 per cent in the run-up to April. But ONS statisticians cautioned that much of this was because economic activity that would have occurred in April was brought forward to earlier in the year. This was likely to be where businesses made purchases and placed orders in February and March as they scrambled to stock up in fear of the tariff turmoil that was about to be unleashed by US president Donald Trump.

Another reason why the economy faltered in April is no doubt a result of the contraction we saw in the jobs market thanks to what businesses see as anti-hiring policies. The increase in the national minimum wage, as well as the £25 billion raid on employer national insurance led to 109,000 job losses in a single month and 274,000 fewer payrolled employees in a year.

The Chancellor looked relaxed last night as she donned her casual clothes to go for the customary post-fiscal event drink at the Treasury’s local pub in Westminster, the Two Chairmen. But she’s woken up to the first flashing warning light on the dashboard that all may not be well come Autumn. If the economy continues to perform sluggishly it’s easy to see how downgrades to GDP forecasts and stubbornly high borrowing costs could threaten the already slim headroom she left herself in the Spring. When that happens, she’ll be looking slightly less cheery having just been forced to raise taxes and quite possibly undo some of the spending plans she approved yesterday.