Four years on, given Trump’s years in the wilderness, the weird abomination that was the Biden “regency”, the crashing of the American economy, the emergent corruption across the nation and the foreign invasion across the Rio Grande – not to mention the odd assassination attempt – we all wondered whether, perchance he was to be elected beyond the Democrat cheat margin, his second go at government would be as alarmingly chaotic as the first.

Well, he was, and, up until now, it hasn’t been. Yes, it has only been five months, and five months does not an administration make. But …

CANNIER

The second Trump term has been marked but far cannier appointments to senior Cabinet posts. One or two were quixotic, but there was a mix of excellent CVs (like Rubio) and attention to problems to be solved (RFK Jr).

Focus was helped enormously by the sheer weight of the task and the extent of the mess that had to be cleaned up.

It is fairly uncontroversial to suggest, I would have thought, that Biden, or whoever was pushing the autopen, was responsible for the greatest mess in American history.

His legacy, tens of millions of illegal immigrants, north-of-thirty-trillion in debt, a corrupt public service, endless divisiveness, a broken economy, the censorship industrial complex, forever wars, international humiliation and COVID tyranny, would make any successor look good.

It also created the mother of all clean-up tasks. Well beyond the reach of Clean Up Australia’s Ian Kiernan, say.

A big job requires focus and seriousness. It didn’t deserve another round of pretend-governance and civil war within the Big House that we got first time around.

Only the naïve would assume that an administration has a single mind, or that the rival ideologies and divisions that afflict all institutions now would not affect the new-old Administration.

After all, 47 is still 45. And all the factions are in situ. The tension between the war Party, aka the neocons, and the paleoconservative-cum-libertarian faction, is but one example.

The other obvious one is the tension between the urge to big, problem-solving government and the need to strip-out corruption (as in USAID) and pare back the broad and deep State, in the manner of DOGE, as a starting point in tackling the crisis in endlessly huge government.

As well as the inevitable tensions between rivals for the ear of the President and philosophical spats across the spectrum. Which brings us neatly and inevitably to Elon Musk.

It was once said of the investment banking firm that consisted of Malcolm Turnbull, Nicholas Whitlam and Neville Wran – how did they ever fit their egos through the door into the one room?

Well, many were asking similar questions of Trump and Musk. Two quirky egomaniacs together? It would never last.

Whoever said there are never permanent friends in politics, only permanent interests, was pretty much right. (It was one William Clay).

Especially when you have both potential train wreck scenarios in play. Volatile characters and a volatile political climate with internally contradictory objectives.

Big problems to solve requiring big government and the need to erase government from our lives. Call them the twin libertarian and authoritarian ideological urges.

Both tasks are utterly essential and legitimate. Taking place in real time (as they say), and in VUCA times. Volatile, uncertain, complex, ambiguous.

There is a third element to the currently emerging dilemma. The 1950s British Prime Minister, Harold Macmillan, suggested that it is “events, dear boy, events” that derail the best laid plans of ambitious and/or well-meaning governments.

Here is the context and the quote: “When Prime Minister Harold Macmillan was asked what was the greatest challenge for a statesman, he replied ‘Events, dear boy, events’. The same is true for most leaders and organisations. Events Happen.”

Given all this, the Trump-Elon political bromance was an impossible juggling act, perhaps. It was never going to end well. If, indeed, it has ended.

CRASHING

It has all come crashing down, or so it seems. Maybe it is all concocted theatre. Who would know, these days?

Elon “going nuclear” with titillating references to the Epstein “files”, connotes a pretty serious pissed-offedness, especially with the gazillion, trillion debt ceiling now contemplated by the White House and the Congress.

But let us assume it is real, if not permanent. And it has crashed on the rocks of a “big beautiful bill”. Very Trumpian language, of course.

His pitch is class log-rolling, a very American political pastime. I will give you want you want, so long as you give me what I want. Then we are both happy, while between us, we utterly screw the Republic.

When both Senators Ron Johnson and Rand Paul oppose legislation, we should be worried.

Concerning, even, if I actually ever used that word.

Given the head of steam and the outsized expectations built up across the MAGA and MAHA movements – and, yes, the RFK agenda and the expectations of vaccine Big Pharma revenge have their own challenges, right about now.

As do the emerging doubts about the potential capture of Kash Patel at the FBI over Epstein and his “suicide” – and the complexity of simultaneously achieving all the Trumpian to-do lists. Crashes were going to be inevitable.

Whether the first big internal administration spat/crisis gets to define the 47^th Presidency, only time will tell. Events, dear boy, events.

There are spats. But, alas, there are also mixed signals.

The slowly, slowly, catchy Big Pharma approach of RFK Jr and Marty Makary has raised concerns among the MAHA brigade.