An Update On What Polls And Prediction Markets Are Saying About The Seven Key Swing States This Election Season – WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV.
As I have written about previously, President Trump appears to be in a very strong position heading into this November’s election. Real Clear Politics’ national aggregate has the 45th President behind Kamala Harris by a diminutive 0.2 percentage points – a reduction from 0.6 points just a few days ago (with internal polling reportedly showing even better results). The last four national polls, capped off by Wall Street Journal’s survey released on October 24th, has President Trump outright leading nationally by a significant 3 points — with surging approval ratings to boot.
To put matters into a perspective, Kamala’s microscopic 0.2-point lead represents a +7.9% pro-Trump shift relative to 2020 (where, at this same juncture, Biden led by 8.1 points) – and a +5.3% pro-Trump swing from 2016 (where Clinton, at this time, led in the polls by 5.5 points). If there is any validity to these polls – and, of course, that is a big ‘if’ in consideration of Leftist election tampering, which is actively in the works (more on that below) – then President Trump looks poised to not only win a significant electoral college victory come November (in the neighborhood of 305+ electoral votes), but also a popular vote victory too – equipping him with a much-deserved political mandate to implement his legislative agenda (likely buoyed with the benefit of having both houses of Congress under Republican control), such as mass deportations and tax cuts.
Things look even better for President Trump when honing in on the battleground states, where the 45th President has a +0.9% aggregate advantage over his opponent. This advantage includes leads, ranging from +0.2% (Wisconsin and Michigan) all the way to +2.2% (Georgia) in every single one of the seven designated swing states (WI, MI, PA, NC, GA, AZ, and NV), a sum total of 103 electoral votes, this election cycle. Donald Trump would only need to pick off 3 or 4 of these states to win the election outright – a clean sweep would hand him well over 300 electoral votes, likely eclipsing his 2016 electoral college landslide victory over Hillary Clinton (304), catapulting him to the White House with a victory that would knock the wind out of any attempts at law-fare or election tampering by the Democrats in retaliation.
This explains the principle of “too big to rig,” which is a strategy of infiltrating with registrations and early voting – in addition to inundating at-risk counties like Philadelphia County in Pennsylvania, and Maricopa County in Arizona – with on-the-ground support, to ensure, as best feasible, a rigorous vote monitoring process – so that Democrats do not pull off a second successful cheat, which would render any future prospects of having a fair national election ever again impossible. The stakes of this election cycle are so high because it is truly our last chance as a nation to set things straight and restore integrity and legitimacy to our election process – and the rule of law, generally speaking. If not, we are foredoomed to go the way of banana republic-like incivility and barbarism, where justice is replaced by brute power, and the rule of law succumbs to the baser appetites of petty and incompetent tyrants.
Despite that somber note, there is a great deal of hope observed in these early trends, which have President Trump leading in the early mail-in vote count in many (if not all) battleground states. What is more, Kamala Harris’ approval ratings – and campaign generally – have been spiraling. Her campaign in recent weeks has been an unmitigated disaster on every front – from media appearances, where she cuts the image of a craven and incompetent would-be dictator – to her vacant policies, which, if they are not a disingenuous about-face from a previous policy she had (she was fiercely anti-fracking before she realized she needed Pennsylvania to win and changed accordingly), are either ripped off from Donald Trump (i.e., “no tax on tips”), or apparently plagiarized from her Marxist professor father’s economics textbook (i.e., taxing unrealized capital gains).
Kamala’s disastrous policies and preternatural incompetence have made their impact on the electorate, where her once significant lead – the manufactured product of legacy media, which artificially inflated her numbers and outright lied about her record and performance – has all but evaporated. Sensible Americans recognize how a Kamala Harris presidency would be a national travesty, the worst thing to ever happen to the United States of America. In short, it would be the death knell for the Republic – that is no mere hyperbole, either.
She has made it crystal clear, through her words and by the actions of the Biden-Harris regime that under her administration, the Constitution would be put on the chopping block. Due process of law and free speech would no longer exist. The presumption of innocence, to say nothing of private property and the right to worship and assemble, would be shredded to smithereens by an increasingly weaponized legal system, which punishes dissidents of the state with heavy-handed impunity. All the while, the last remnants of government of the people, by the people, for the people, would be sold off to China and Mexico, our adversaries, and America as we long knew it would effectively cease to be.
These harrowing truths have reverberated in the battleground states, where, based on polling and even trends in betting markets, President Trump now leads, and increasingly by commanding margins, across the board. The momentum is strong, reflecting the collective efforts of the American people – knowing the hour is late – who seem to be rising to the task, and intent on securing Donald Trump with the long awaited second term he deserves.
Pennsylvania: Based on RCP, President Trump enjoys a +0.6 advantage out of the Keystone State. As I have written about extensively before, Pennsylvania is the most important battleground state for the obvious reason that it has 19 electoral votes, and thus the largest of each of the special seven up for grabs. With Pennsylvania, President Trump’s path to 270 becomes much easier – in fact, he would only have to win North Carolina and Georgia (and could forfeit Wisconsin, Michigan, Nevada, AND Arizona), and still get to the promised land. Of course, in reality, an early Pennsylvania victory would foretell greater things across the board: it would almost certainly be the first of the three so-called rust belt dominoes to fall, meaning it’s very unlikely that the President carries Pennsylvania without likewise carrying Wisconsin and Michigan. Its advantage also derives from being nestled on the east coast, meaning no amount of Maricopa County shenanigans, however significant, would be sufficient to override a Keystone State victory. This further underscores its importance, and the importance of election integrity efforts there, because it could make the lives of election lawyers across the rest of the country so much easier if the result in Pennsylvania is decisive enough to make a call on November 5th; and, as the saying goes, whoever wins Pennsylvania wins the whole thing. Betting markets are also optimistic about Pennsylvania: Polymarket currently has Donald Trump in the lead – 57% to 43%. Kalshi, the only American betting market, similarly gives Donald Trump promising odds in the Keystone State: 55% to 45%.
Michigan: Michigan, a state with a hefty 15 electoral votes, and tied for second among the rustbelt battlegrounds, would be another state that would make November 5th an early night for President Trump if called in his favor. Currently, President Trump maintains a 0.2+% lead there, according to the RCP average. That lead, seemingly minuscule, is significant in the context of where President Trump stood four years ago (Biden was polling +9.0% ahead) and eight years ago (where Hillary Clinton had a 10.0%+ lead), thus highlighting the power (leaving wayward polling to one side) of the 2024 campaign operation. On the ground, the grassroots support for the 45th President is formidable. The betting markets convey this optimism: Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 56% to 44% advantage over Kamala Harris. This is also reflected on Kalshi, where Donald Trump also currently leads 52% to 48%.
Wisconsin: President Trump’s prospects also fare well, based on current polling trends, in the Badger State, where he currently is up by +0.2% over Kamala Harris in the RCP aggregate. When contextualized to where the 45th President stood at this juncture in 2020 (Biden had a +5.4% lead at this point) and 2016 (Hillary Clinton had a +6.2% lead in late October), it makes it even more significant. Though the smallest of the rustbelt states in terms of electoral vote count (10 votes), who can forget Wolf Blitzer’s face on election night 2016, when Wisconsin was the first of the vaunted “blue wall” states to fall – which it did before the 11 o’clock hour, eastern time – effectively punching Donald Trump’s ticket to 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. So, a victory there would be significant, and probably insurmountable – no matter the results for the rest of the country. The betting markets similarly reflect favorable odds for Donald Trump: Polymarket gives Donald Trump a 56% chance of winning; Kalshi gives the 45th President a 52% chance of taking home the Badger State.
North Carolina, Georgia, Arizona: The three sunbelt battlegrounds – which boast 16, 16, and 11 electoral votes, respectively – are traditionally Republican strongholds, having voted “red” in most of the last half dozen election cycles, with the outlier being 2020, where both Georgia and Arizona notoriously broke in Biden’s favor. Fortunately, four years after that most disreputable of races, the President finds himself in a stronger polling position today. The strategy all throughout this campaign is to beat the cheat. You do that by flooding the ballot boxes with Trump votes from lower propensity demographics – former Democrats, younger people, union workers, and other groups that have not traditionally voted Republican – or, for that matter, vote in general. This upsurge of support for President Trump is reflected in the RCP averages: in Georgia, the President commands a +2.2% advantage – compared to the +0.8% lead Biden had at this stage four years ago. In Arizona, the President has a +1.5% lead – up from a 2.4% deficit (allegedly) at this juncture in 2020, and a 1.5% deficit in 2016. Prediction markets also portray a rosy sunbelt situation for the 45th President: Polymarket gives him a 67% chance of taking North Carolina, and a 71% chance of carrying Georgia and Arizona. Kalshi follows a similar trend: the President’s odds of winning North Carolina are at 63%, Georgia at 66%, and Arizona at 70%.
Nevada: The Silver State has been an intriguing story all throughout this election cycle. Though Nevada’s 6 electoral votes went to the Democratic candidate in both 2016 and 2020, it has been trending rightward in every presidential election since 2016, putting it — in 2024 — in competitive territory for the first time in a generation. Currently, according to the RCP average, the President enjoys a +0.7% lead there, substantially up from both 2020 (where Biden led by +5.2% points) and 2016 (where Clinton led by +5.0%). Nevada of course is home to many Hispanic voters, and other demographic groups, like former Democrats and Independent voters, who have not historically voted for Republican presidential candidates, but now have gravitated to the Republican Party because of the MAGA Movement.
While Nevada’s six electoral votes are the smallest of the seven battlegrounds, and thus would more likely be the icing on the cake to an incredible night rather than the deciding factor, it still could be pivotal in other ways. There is a longshot scenario where Trump can lose all three rustbelt battlegrounds, and still win the election – by amassing 269 electoral votes, and effectively tossing the race to the House of Representatives, which has a majority of Republican state delegations that would decide the race in Donald Trump’s favor – by sweeping the sunbelt plus carrying Nebraska’s second electoral district. All of which is to say, Nebraska is good insurance to pad a victory on November 5th. In the prediction markets, the President enjoys a 64% advantage on Polymarket, and a 61% advantage on Kalshi.
A Word Of Warning: President Trump is undeniably leading in this race. If this were a free and fair election – heck, even if it was somewhat fraudulent – the 45th President wins handily. The problem, of course, is that the Democratic Party – and its numerous apparatchiks on the state levels, which is supported by the media and lawfare networks, NGOs, and other major institutions that back Kamala Harris, is that they have a penchant for cheating. As Donald Trump likes to say, the Democrats are incompetent at basically everything they do, except for cheating. They know how to rig elections; they know how to harvest ballots, and dump illegitimate voters – be they dead, out-of-state, or illegal aliens – onto voter rolls.
They know how to finagle election laws, as is currently underway in the state of Texas, to selectively enforce rules that are to their benefit. For example, there, Texas election officials are reportedly allowing people to use temporary driver’s licenses – the same ones offered to illegal aliens and foreign workers, ineligible to vote, who reside there on temporary visas – as Voter ID, despite being against state election law, to vote in their elections. Other states, like Pennsylvania and Arizona, run by Democrat Governors, have still not made their voter rolls transparent, which could potentially include tens, if not hundreds of thousands of ineligible voters. Of outsize concern, naturally, are illegal aliens – who have flooded the interior to the tune of tens of millions over the past four years alone (as part of a concerted mission by the powers that be to create a one-party state). Other strange things are in the works: in Georgia, for instance, a report came out this week claiming that Homeland Security officials are working on a “cybersecurity threat exercise” on Election Day; the timing of this exercise – right on November 5th – is for reasons that are self-evident, troubling and odd; lest we forget, in the immediate aftermath of the RNC, there was another “cyberattack” on critical infrastructure that caused massive airline disruptions, particularly from Milwaukee airports – where the RNC was held – and nearby Chicago, for several days.
In conclusion, more than ever, there is a need to deploy an army of election volunteers, poll watchers, and lawyers on the ground to monitor the whole process. That is the only way a (relatively speaking) free and fair election process might be secured, and the only way to save this country.
To find out more information about getting involved visit: https://swampthevoteusa.com/.
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