In May 2022, Anthony Albanese stood before Labor supporters at his election campaign launch in Perth and promised Australians a better future.
He pledged cheaper electricity, cheaper mortgages, cheaper medicines and higher wages.
Labor, he declared, had a plan to make life easier.
Four years later, Australians could be forgiven for wondering what happened to that promise.
Instead of cheaper mortgages, they have endured 17 interest rate increases since Labor came to office, including five this year alone.
The Reserve Bank’s latest 0.25 percentage point increase has pushed the official cash rate to 4.85 per cent, its highest level in 18 years, with another increase possible before Christmas.
For hundreds of thousands of mortgage holders, the consequences are becoming severe.
Analysis of Reserve Bank and Australian Bureau of Statistics data I commissioned reveals the estimated number of Australian households carrying a high mortgage burden has surged from approximately 348,000 in May 2022 to 868,000 in May 2026.
That represents an additional 520,000 households, an extraordinary increase of almost 150 per cent in four years.
The deterioration extends across every state and the Australian Capital Territory.
Victoria has the highest estimated number of households carrying a high mortgage burden at 267,700, followed by New South Wales at 266,300, Queensland at 149,200, and Western Australia at 85,600.
South Australia has 61,600 affected households, Tasmania 22,000, and the ACT 15,700.
Since Labor came to office, the estimated number of households carrying a high mortgage burden has risen 218 per cent in South Australia, 199 per cent in Tasmania, 190 per cent in the ACT, 161 per cent in Queensland, 154 per cent in Western Australia, 148 per cent in Victoria, and 127 per cent in New South Wales.
These are not abstract statistics.
They represent Australians struggling to meet mortgage repayments while finding enough money for groceries, electricity, insurance and other essentials.
More concerning still, these figures predate the full impact of this year’s five interest rate increases, meaning mortgage pressures are almost certainly worse today.
For a household with a $731,000 mortgage, those increases could add thousands of dollars to annual repayments, leaving less for everyday expenses, savings and investment.
And the economic outlook offers little comfort.
The Reserve Bank’s latest quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy paints a troubling picture of Australia’s economic future.
Inflation is forecast to reach 4.5 per cent by Christmas and remain above 3 per cent until late 2027.
GDP growth is forecast to slow to just 1.3 per cent by late next year, unemployment is expected to reach 5.1 per cent by the end of 2028, and real wages are forecast to decline until at least late 2027.
Australians face the increasingly unpleasant combination of higher prices, rising unemployment, weaker economic growth, and declining purchasing power.
Hardly the better standard of living Anthony Albanese promised.
Yet rather than accepting responsibility, the Prime Minister continues to blame global inflation and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz.
International events undoubtedly affect Australia’s economy, but they cannot excuse four years of domestic economic mismanagement.
The Reserve Bank itself has identified stronger-than-expected domestic capacity pressures as the principal reason underlying inflation has exceeded expectations.
Nor can global events excuse Labor’s failure to exercise spending restraint while the Reserve Bank struggles to bring inflation under control.
The uncomfortable truth is that Labor has a spending problem.
Excessive government spending adds to demand, contributes to inflationary pressures, and makes the Reserve Bank’s task more difficult.
While households are forced to tighten their belts, the Federal Government refuses to demonstrate the same financial discipline.
But an even more dangerous threat is emerging.
Australia’s mortgage crisis is colliding with a rapidly deteriorating housing market.
Latest Cotality figures show national dwelling values have fallen for seven consecutive months, declining 3.9 per cent during the October quarter.
Combined capital-city values fell 4.5 per cent, with Brisbane recording a 6.1 per cent decline, Perth 5.7 per cent, and Sydney 4.7 per cent.
The downturn has been particularly severe in Sydney and Melbourne, where annual dwelling values have fallen 9.4 per cent and 7.6 per cent respectively.
AMP Chief Economist Shane Oliver has warned Australian house prices could fall by as much as 15 per cent from their March peak before stabilising over the next year.
The potential destruction of household wealth is staggering.
Australia’s housing market was valued at $12.723 trillion in the March quarter before declining to $12.688 trillion in June.
A peak-to-trough decline of 15 per cent would erase approximately $1.9 trillion in housing wealth, including $695 billion in New South Wales, $419 billion in Victoria, $393 billion in Queensland, and more than $200 billion in Western Australia.
Such a collapse would weaken consumer confidence, undermine spending and investment, and increase the risk of recession.
For mortgage holders already struggling with repayments, falling property values introduce another danger: negative equity.
Those most exposed are recent first-home buyers encouraged into the market under Labor’s expanded 5 per cent deposit scheme.
The government removed income restrictions and substantially increased property price thresholds, making it easier to purchase homes with minimal savings.
Australian Bureau of Statistics figures reveal 90,866 new owner-occupier first-home buyer loan commitments were made between October 2025 and June 2026, totalling $55.7 billion.
Victoria accounted for 29,318 loans worth $16.47 billion, followed by New South Wales with 22,155 loans worth $15.27 billion, Queensland with 17,390 loans worth $11.01 billion, and Western Australia with 11,099 loans worth $6.63 billion.
These buyers entered the market believing home ownership offered financial security.
Instead, many now face falling property values and rising mortgage repayments.
A 5 per cent decline in property values can effectively wipe out the initial equity of someone who purchased with a 5 per cent deposit, before accounting for purchasing costs and repayments.
Further declines could leave them owing more than their home is worth.
The danger becomes acute if unemployment rises, working hours are reduced, or an unexpected expense forces a household to sell.
Labor’s changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax announced in the May Federal Budget have added uncertainty to an already fragile housing market.
The contradiction in Labor’s housing policy is increasingly apparent.
The government encouraged Australians to take on substantial debt with minimal deposits while failing to contain the inflationary pressures driving interest rates higher.
Now those same buyers face declining property values and potentially further rate increases.
This is not simply a housing problem. It is a broader economic failure threatening consumer spending, business investment, employment and national prosperity.
Australia needs a credible economic strategy built around disciplined government spending, stronger productivity, increased private investment, and sustainable economic growth.
Instead, Australians face another possible interest rate increase before Christmas, with little indication the government understands the financial pressure confronting mortgage holders.
In 2022, Anthony Albanese promised cheaper mortgages and a better standard of living.
Four years later, mortgage burdens have more than doubled, inflation remains stubbornly high, unemployment is rising, real wages are declining and interest rates have reached an 18-year high.
Now almost $2 trillion in housing wealth could be at risk.
The Prime Minister can blame global events, but he cannot escape responsibility for the economic decisions made in Canberra.
Australians were promised an easier life under Labor.
Instead, they are paying an increasingly painful price for its economic mismanagement.
Dean Smith, Assistant Shadow Minister to the Shadow Treasurer
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