by PAUL COLLITS – AUSTRALIA and Britain still share many things in common – and both nations are at electoral crossroads.
We both share failed UniParty governance. We are both the victims of mass immigration and aggressive Muslim colonialism.
- One Nation has clearly emerged as the clear first among equals on the alt-Right. The others have peaked.
- But, the Right’s excitement over recent polls is overblown.
- Both Labor and Liberals are determined to keep out “the far Right racists and deplorables”.
We have experienced failed conservatism. We both have extremist, “progressive” governments.
Separated by massive, antipodean distance, but uniquely sharing history, brotherhood, tradition and current political cultures, Australia and Britain find themselves in by-election lockstep.
JUNK
Brits will probably have not heard of the Australian electorate of Farrer. And most Australians will not have heard of Gorton & Denton.
The latter by-election has been decided, on February 26. And leaving a fair junk of the British punditocracy in mild shock.
The date for Farrer has now been set as May 9, following the resignation from Parliament of the recently deposed leader of the Liberal Party, Sussan Ley.
On the face of it, the two electorates have little in common. Urban Manchester and rural Australia don’t suggest a shared political culture.
Farrer covers more than 126,000 square kilometres, much of the south west of NSW and about a fifth of the State. (Remembering that France fits comfortably within NSW). This is a big space.
Suburban Gorton & Denton could fit into Farrer hundreds of times over.
Farrer has a negligible Muslim population. Very few Greens. Plenty of farmers, though. And a couple of rural cities, including Albury.
It has been a safe Liberal Party seat for many years. Its principal demographic groups (by ancestry) in Farrer are Australian, English, Irish, Scottish and Italian.
Our Manchester friends, of course, are massively and infamously multi-cultural. Recently, for example, students in Manchester mourned the death of the Ayatollah. I am confident that few students in Albury would have been similarly in mourning.
Almost everybody in Farrer speaks English. Well, Australian. Matt Goodwin, the Reform UK candidate in Gorton & Denton, canvassed neighbourhoods where half the locals weren’t born in Britain.
The UK Greens’ flyers were (infamously but cleverly) printed in Urdu, of course. I am not expecting any flyers in Farrer to be so translated.
CRITICAL
There are system differences, too. Unlike the UK, voting in Australian by-elections is compulsory. The flow of preferences will, most likely, be critical here. Preferences don’t come into play at all in Britain.
Why would anyone, therefore, seek to link the two electorates under discussion? Why even be talking about them?
Well, we both have insurgent alt-Right political movements that are split. We share electoral systems – whether first-past-the-post or preferential – that favour UniParty incumbents.
And we have in play by-elections that have been cast as litmus tests for emergent, insurgent Parties which have been, in both countries, polling magnificently but whose recent upswings have been largely untested in real electoral contests
In Britain, it is Reform UK. In Australia, it is One Nation, led by Pauline Hanson.
The stakes are high in both countries. Are we on the cusp of an alt-Right counter-revolution, that will finally deliver policies that most of the people want, or will we both flame out?
Well, Reform UK came a cropper in Gorton & Denton. The Greens won on the back of coordinated, strategic, Muslim support, which has been clinically built carefully over decades.
Unbelievable, to distant eyes. But, the name of the game seems to be one of keeping the alt-Right out of politics. Especially Reform UK, apparently the most disliked political Party in Britain.
In a first past the post (FPP) electoral system, coming second is like an Olympic silver medal. The first of all the losers, as Jerry Seinfeld once said
Hence there are widespread calls in Britain for electoral reform and, in particular, for some form of proportional representation, the kind that applies in Australia’s Senate.
For Aussie readers, see these excellent summaries of the UK by-election.
Reform UK campaigned well. It increased their vote substantially
With a polished candidate, an effective campaign, a disgruntled national electorate and a hated government, they should have won. But, they lost.
BETTER DRESSED
Australia’s One Nation in Farrer faces the Liberals, the Nationals and the “Climate 200” brigade (similar to the Greens, but dress better), and possibly an independent or two. Labor is likely to sit it out. One Nation is upbeat.
Hanson has so described Farrer’s significance: “The eyes of the entire nation will be on the outcome.”
No pressure, then.
Pauline’s Party has just announced its candidate – a white male who is a 69-year-old farmer/agricultural consultant with an international business background and serious local community cred. A man of regional Australia named David Farley.
He’s the sort of candidate the Nationals and the regional Liberals would once have picked. A man for this time – and this place.
He will give One Nation its best chance for an insurgent breakthrough. But, perhaps Farley, too, will do brilliantly and then come second.
In the 2025 general election, which Sussan Ley won easily for the Liberals in Farrer, though with a reduced majority, the greenie climate change independent came second.
One Nation scored a mere 6.6 per cent of the primary vote – way behind Labor.
The other alt-Right micro Parties received about 10 per cent between them. That is not even a year ago.
The national political mood has changed that much. That soon. And One Nation has clearly emerged over this same time period as the clear first among equals on the alt-right. The others have peaked, it seems.
Some Labor stalwarts here want the ALP to stand a candidate and preference the Liberals, just to keep One Nation out. Or just vote Liberal, if you are a Labor voter.
Does this sound familiar? Just keep the “far Right” racists and deplorables out!
In the UK, there has been a narrative, based on national polls, that Farage will (effortlessly) become PM come 2029, whatever happens between now and then. Really.
INSURGENT
I have never assumed this will happen. Polling is just – polling. It means squat. Despite all the insurgent excitement. We ain’t reached “seismic” yet.
Down under, One Nation faces exactly the same challenge as Reform UK. The alt-Right excitement over recent polls is overblown. As Gorton & Denton showed, all too clearly. Farrer may do the same.
The British Tories have tanked. We know this. They know it. For all the reasons we understand.
The Aussie Tories have collapsed, too. Their polls are now regularly and miserably in the teens, forever ignoring their base.
They are leaderless (even with the new leader, called Angus Taylor). Lacking popular connect. Absent policy focus. Failing the core test of self-reflection on past failures.
Ideologically torn, caught between two stools. Ruled by Lefties (called “moderates” or “modern Liberals”) both in the Parliament and on the unelected fringes.
They endlessly look inwards at themselves without the remotest sense of why they are on the nose, both in the real world and among their traditional supporters.
LEAKED
A recent review of the Liberals’ failure at the last election was suppressed, then leaked.
Oh dear.
Despite the collapse of the Tories at each end of the QF1 route, the way forward for the insurgent Parties of the alt-Right is far from clear.
Gorton & Denton has been a stunning reality check for those who have seemed to think that conservative Party rethinks will seamlessly lead to an alt-Right take-over.
Gorton & Denton has locked in the Muslim takeover of Britain. A sobering lesson if ever there was one.
If there are any real Britons still remotely awake, they might like to contemplate the events that have just taken place.
Down Under, the Farrer by-election might just serve as a similar reality check. I hope there are at least a few Aussies (at least in rural Australia) who might recognise the stakes in play.
Failure to win in Farrer will lead to yet another round of soul searching for One Nation and the rest of the largish, peeved class in the shadow of electoral system realities.
The legacy Parties may be policy failures and evil, but they sure know how to hang onto power.PC
