by MARK WHITE – LAST Saturday’s Farrer by-election was akin to an extinction level political event, especially when you put all the facts together.
I’m still processing what happened on the weekend, with One Nation securing the seat with a primary vote of 39.5 per cent compared to the Liberal Party’s 12.4 per cent.
- The Liberals lost not just the electorate but every single booth in Farrer.
- The Coalition vote combined didn’t even come in second, but third place.
- Farrer used to be the safest seat in the country for the Coalition.
The electorate was formerly represented by retired Liberal Leader Sussan Ley. The Libs suffering a 31 per cent swing against it.
The Nationals picked up 9.7 per cent of the primary vote while independent Michelle Milthorpe secured 28.4 per cent.
Just consider this 10-point analysis by Mark Powell in The Spectator Australia.
1. The Liberal Party lost not just the electorate but Every. Single. Booth.
2. In no electoral booth did they achieve more than 20 per cent of the vote.
3. One Nation won all of the border booths, which backs onto six other electorates – and so they’ll probably vote the same.
4. In at least one booth (Balranald), the Liberal vote was lower than that for “spoiled ballots” (blank or incorrectly completed).
5. Historically, Farrer used to be the safest seat in the country for the Coalition.
6. The Labor Party didn’t even field a candidate.
7. The Coalition vote combined didn’t even come in second, but third place.
8. The electorate of Farrer is now a safe One Nation seat.
9. The Liberal Party was actually founded in Farrer back in 1949. Ironically, this will more than likely also be the place where they die.
10. Even in defeat Angus Taylor could not announce a single unique policy but only a watered-down version of Labor’s agenda.
If you put all these together, I can’t see how the Libs are going to come back. Especially when the problems are so systemic.
There are many terrific people in the Liberal Party but, unfortunately, they’re being swallowed up and spat out by the machine.PC
This article also appears on Mark White’s FaceBook page.
I am glad to see Abbott back in a political leadership role. However, if the liberal parliamentary leader is not convincing, then Abbott is in an impossible position. Angus Taylor is unconvincing. It’s almost like he doesn’t believe in what he is saying, so how can the coalition hope to get back into government – by waiting until the position is so desperate that the country is ready to revoltagaisnt this labor “government”? That would not produce a better government. LIFT YOUR GAME MR. TAYLOR, OR GET OUT ! WE DON’T WANT ANOTHER TURNBULL !! SHOW SOME GRIT – SOME DETERMINATION – BE ASSERTIVE AND CONVINCING.
Which of the ten reasons stings the most? My pick is 4.
An important factor not being widely mentioned is that Coalition agreement does not allow candidates being selected to oppose sitting Coalition party MPs, therefore what was National then Liberal had not had a National candidate for many years, the by election followed a Liberal leaving the electorate early and National Party selected a candidate, but the about 10% vote received by that National candidate was not subject of loss because there is no relevant data point.
The one to consider is Teal backed by Union GetUp and future elections, last Saturday and at the by election in Victoria earlier that the Liberal candidate won on a 2PP basis Teal was also in second position.
Labor spin doctors are formidable opponents and their relentless negativity notably from Abbott 2013-2015 onwards has captured the imaginations of many voters who by comments posted generally believe the propaganda.
For example, Howard Government was elected 1996 and they signed the Kyoto Japan COP agreement in 1997 but imposed terms and conditions to use new technology and without damaging the economy to achieve emissions target, and Australia is one of the few signatory nations that achieved target, and exceeded target. Rudd Labor after 2007 ratified Kyoto.
Abbott Government attempted to repeal Labor’s transition to renewable energy away from fossil fuels legislation and was blocked in the Senate, but did manage to abolish Gillard Labor carbon tax. Noting that development applications and other requirements to build so called renewables are State powers and responsibilities. States owned power stations and transmission lines, Queensland still does, until New South Wales Carr Labor decided on privatisation, Keneally Labor sold the first tranche of those public assets followed by Victoria Labor and South Australia. And later Federal Labor created the subsidised incentive based wind and solar projects, Howard earlier had a non-binding provision together with any other technologies offered. Morrison did not “sign up to net zero” at Glasgow 2021, instead they offered an “aspirational goal” and following Howard Government lead at Kyoto 1997 terms and conditions included new technologies (for example nuclear power stations later Dutton Plan outlined seven) and no damage to the economy.
As the advertising used to explain – oils ain’t oils
I believe the Coalition will come back in this seat but they have to purge the Labor lites
“I believe the Coalition will come back in this seat but they have to purge the Labor lites.”
I believe in the tooth fairy, renewable energy, and the universally acknowledged erudition of socialists who parade themselves in liberal garb…
They were finished in 2015, Turnbull fiasco, just can’t bring themselves to realise.
Turnbull period as PM ended 2018, now eight years ago, and then Dutton supported Morrison to replace Turnbull and Morrison Government won the 2019 election and then lost in 2022 when Dutton became Opposition Leader, and lost to Albanese Labor in 2025 when Ley was elected Opposition Leader however by early 2026 she was replaced by Canavan who received two thirds of Liberal MP votes and Ley resigned from Parliament causing the by election and angry constituents voting again one year after the last election.
A note about the pandemic period 2020-2022 and the claim by some attacking Morrison Government that they should have legislated emergency powers to control the states. The Attorney General at that time was asked about this possibility and she replied that if attempted it would result in a High Court constitutional laws based challenge and cause damage to the Federation of States and confuse the management of pandemic control.
Oh what a lot of gutless arse covering legalistic psychobabble by the spines of an amoeba Liberal party.
Morrison got up in front of the country in March 2020 and said covid was a mostly mild virus to the great majority of Australians, particularly the young and healthy, which it exactly what it was.
Next minute this supposed party of small government and individual freedom was all in on copying the authoritarian covid response of the Chinese Communist Politburo.
The massive spending of commonwealth borrowed money allowed the states to impose thuggish lockdowns, school closures, and weaponised police. No thought that future generations would have to pay for all this money the country didn’t have. No idea that the inflation caused by tripling the money supply and helicoptering it down on the community would result in asset inflation that transferred huge wealth from poor to rich and young to old. Any claim that the liberals were a party of sound and prudent economic management was sacrificed on the altar of a fearmongering, panicked lockdown insanity. Idiotic rules made up out of thin air, and worst of all, policies that were highly favourable to big business, the well off, the laptop, and political classes, while they smashed small business, ordinary workers and poor people. All this for what? Statistic show majority numbers who actually died of covid were in their 80’s and had other health issues. The ex Liberal base will never forget or forgive this abject betrayal.
See Constitution, Federation of States, Commonwealth of Australia created and Federal Government formed for national and international affairs, States retaining most of the responsibilities and powers that held as colonial governments.
State legislated State Parliaments Emergency Powers, Public Health & Hospitals, hotel quarantine detention centres, interstate border closures including foreigners entering a state after arrival, restrictions on movements of people and hardship resulting from businesses and employment restrictions arising, vaccination mandatory, and so on.
Federal responsibilities pharmaceuticals, funding grants, employers and employees support, but enforcement of state by state authorities Health and Police.
Labor’s blame tactics by Premiers and Opposition Leader Albanese worked because too many Australians have not bothered to learn about Federal-State relations, powers and responsibilities.
Same for 2019 bushfires propaganda from Albanese Labor and that catchy Hawaii holiday deception.
Exactly as I stated above. “Federal responsibilities funding grants, employers and employees support”. The states could not have afforded to impose their thuggish lockdowns and other covid lunacy without the open cheque book of commonwealth money that flowed to them.
Doesn’t matter what powers states have, they are absolutely propped up by commonwealth money.
State Funding During the Pandemic
Overview of Funding Initiatives
During the COVID-19 pandemic, the Morrison government implemented various funding initiatives aimed at supporting both businesses and workers. This included:
Income Support Programs: Significant financial assistance was provided to help businesses retain employees and support workers affected by lockdowns and restrictions.
Increased Government Expenditure: The government dramatically increased its spending to manage the economic impact of the pandemic, which was essential for stabilizing the economy.
Coordination with State Governments
The Morrison government established the National Cabinet to enhance coordination between federal, state, and territory governments. This body was crucial for:
Unified Response: Facilitating a cohesive approach to public health measures and economic support across Australia.
Regular Meetings: The National Cabinet met frequently to discuss and implement strategies, ensuring that all levels of government were aligned in their responses to the pandemic.
Key Financial Support Measures
Support Measure Description
JobKeeper Payment Wage subsidy to help businesses retain employees.
Cash Flow Boost Grants to small and medium-sized businesses.
Aged Care Funding Additional resources for aged care facilities.
Health Sector Funding Increased funding for hospitals and health services.
These measures were part of a broader strategy to mitigate the pandemic’s impact and support the recovery of the Australian economy.
State Emergency Services legislated after the pandemic began and State Police and Health enforcement were State expenditure and budget-finance based.
Hindsight, a gift we all share.
Relentless negativity examples;
Bushfires 2019 and Prime Minister Morrison blamed for being on a family holiday in Hawaii by Labor.
Natural disasters are the primary responsibility of State Governments and Premiers, State Emergency Services and in NSW Rural Fire Service and others. Also for floods as experienced 2020. And when a leader is absent, Premiers or Prime Ministers, the Deputy is Acting leader, as in 2019 Morrison holiday.
Pandemics are primarily State Government Public Health & Hospitals responsibility, also closing interstate borders and hotel quarantine detention arrangements, state emergency powers legislated and enforced by state police, stay at home orders policing, and more.
Federal have a funding support role and pharmaceuticals supply, but little compared to States powers and responsibilities and that was why the National Leaders Cabinet was created based on Council Of Australian Governments (COAG), Premiers and Prime Minister Cabinet to try and obtain cooperation and coordination between State Governments, Premiers and Cabinets.
But Albanese Labor Opposition and State Labor, notably in Victoria and Queensland, used pandemic to attack the Morrison Government relying on general ignorance of Federation of States, Constitution and Commonwealth of Australia Federal Government Federation of States established, but retaining most powers and responsibilities of the former colonial governments now states.
Key factor to consider is that the sitting Liberal MP resigned and left after being returned as local member at the 2025 election. Afterwards she had been selected by a narrow margin of Liberal MP votes to be Leader of the Liberals. Soon afterwards she declared that most of the policies taken by Leader Dutton to the 2025 election were no longer supported policies.
The National Party Leader engaged with the Liberal Leader in disagreement that led to a split of Coalition partners.
Eventually over months both leaders were replaced, Angus Taylor was elected by a two-thirds majority of Liberal MPs and Matt Canavan was selected unopposed by National MPs, three months before the Farrer by election last Saturday.
Note that at the earlier by election in Victoria the Liberal candidate won the seat, Teal Independent was second and on a 2PP calculation basis second placing, last Saturday One Nation candidate was elected and Teal Independent second. Earlier SA State election One Nation gained a few seats but Labor Government was returned comfortably.
Labor did not have a candidate in the by elections, but Union established and funded GetUp activist organisation supported the Teal Independent, as GetUp has done since the first Teal candidate appeared and defeated Tony Abbott MP.
Media are pushing for One Nation now, however they just had their first elected House of Representatives MP elected, the other one MP is a former National Party Leader and Deputy Prime Minister, two times. And only four Senators. For comparison the Greens are a minor party and they have one House of Representatives MP and ten Senators and mostly support Labor, as do Teals.
Fact is that One Nation probably will gain some more seats at the 2028 Federal election but can they win the 76 seats needed to form government in two years time?
It is looking like Labor campaign tactics that have included relentless negativity and passing blame for juts about everything Labor does or has done to the Coalition past governments and leaders, and One Nation formed 1997, so 29 years and still micro compared to minor Greens is now favoured to form government?
One semi-good item to emerge from the Farrer bye-election is the tiny vote for the Greens (c.2-3%). The Labor Party vote in previous Farrer elections is around 15%. This clearly didn’t divert to the Greens. Some of it went to an increase in the vote for the covert-Teal Michelle Millthorpe (c.4% points). It seems that a goodly slice of the Labor vote has gone to One Nation. If One Nation scoops up disaffected Liberal voters as well as awakening Labor voters, it will truly be living up to its name!
The Teal backed by Climate 200 vested interests in climate politics and renewables (so called) transition away from fossil fuels, and by Australian Workers Union established GetUp activist organisation based on a US activist organisation for Socialist Democrats support, and here AWU senior executive Bill Shorten at the time of GetUp being established and he joined the Board of Directors at GetUp.
Shorten now shilling from the Uni Canberra. Its how Labor loads the bases, cleverly.
But I digress.
ON makes an impressive electoral bid. Its headline policies will attract voters. That is intended; expect attempted takedowns by the ‘free’ press. It will imo prove counter productive. The ABC, Guardian etc., are already in a frenzy,
My preference as a Liberal is to focus on our policies and maybe find preference accomodation with ON to oust Labor and its fellow travellers.
The non urban seats held by Nats are likely to be more susceptible to ON, as was Farrer. Urban seats will be less so with Labor, teal, Libs and Greens primary challengers. They are also where I believe immigration and general grumpiness will emerge more fully. The ON preferences will be very important in what are generally demographically more diverse seats.
Coalition policies have begun to emerge, not unlike ON in some instances. No surprise, ON and Liberal policy aims are likely to be broadly comparable.
ON will find running in all(?) seats and senate against the Labor/Green/teal axis financially and organisationally hard going. As will the Coalition. We already have a public backslider, expect more as the renewable lobby steps up its work rate.