Canada’s Prime Minister Mark Carney says he welcomes the EU’s ‘ambition’ for Canada to become an associate member. He should drop these pretensions about a ‘unique partnership’ and opt instead for a rejuvenated alliance with his country’s Commonwealth siblings: Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
The bloc is simply too big, unwieldy and cumbersome to function as is, never mind opening its already weak trust deficit to a country the size of Canada
After all, if Carney really wants to hedge against an increasingly hostile United States, he would be better off re-engaging with the ‘CANZUK’ states than a sclerotic EU. Frankly, this approach would also be less likely to be seen as a hostile act by the Trump administration, which has responded to Canada’s buddying up with Brussels by threatening new tariffs on Europe.
But Carney, it seems, wants a fight that he might not win. In a speech at the European Parliament yesterday, the Canadian PM said that an alliance between Canada and the EU ‘would create a beacon for other democracies’. Many Canadians aren’t convinced. And after EU President Ursula von der Leyen echoed this sentiment about stronger ties, Carney appeared to distance himself from her words after the event. Is he already having second thoughts?
To be clear, no such associate membership status is yet on the table from the EU. Even if it was, it would need approval from all member states, many of which would be enormously wary of opening themselves up to Canada’s gargantuan resource sector, not least agriculture (here’s looking at you, France).
Perhaps Ms von der Leyen merely wanted to grab a headline, but the whole thing unravelled upon contact with reality, amid swift assurances from all sides that all that was potentially on offer was better cooperation on the likes of defence or digital.
Frankly, as many of the EU’s straitjacketed member states would confirm, the bloc is simply too big, unwieldy and cumbersome to function as is, never mind opening its already weak trust deficit to a country the size of Canada, one not even within the Continent.
But Carney should rest assured: he has a smaller and nimbler but higher-growth and trusting alliance to work with: CANZUK, the acronym for an alliance or union between Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the UK.
The four sibling states share a king, language, political system, legal system, kinship, culture and historical ties. Combined, they would represent the world’s largest polity and its third largest economy. Could this be more of an open goal?
Yes, only 5 per cent of Canadian trade is currently with the rest of CANZUK, but this bloc has much greater scope for growth than a sluggish EU (plus the EU and CANZUK both make up about 10 per cent of Canadian exports). In any event, the EU barely makes up 8 per cent of current Canadian trade as is.
In any event, would Canadians really want to be tied down with just about the most bureaucratic and backwards-looking economic bloc in the world? One which it has precious little in common with.
As we saw during the ‘coronabonds’ debacle a few years back, the likes of Germany and Italy barely trust each other, and there is longstanding enmity between Brussels and the conservative perma-rebels of Central and Eastern Europe. Imagine introducing Canadians into that heady mix.
CANZUK would be about more than trade anyway, but geopolitics, defence and security. Building upon the Five Eyes security pact the four states have with each other and the US, we would be talking about unmatched interoperability in terms of defence and intelligence.
Ultimately, CANZUK has the trust premium the EU could never offer Ottawa. Plus, it’s far easier to coordinate four states of 150 million people than 27 states of 450 million. Four states which speak the same language and share the same commander-in-chief.
Again, it’s not as if Carney has shown no interest in a Commonwealth alliance. He recently spoke at the Australian parliament talking up ties with Canberra. Canada has also already joined a UK-led next-generation fighter program and partnered with Australia on Arctic radar systems.
New Zealand is also working on deepening trade ties with Canada. Perhaps looking ahead to a CANZUK deal, Australian Trade Minister Don Farrell said: ‘I think Canada is in the space of free and fair trade, at least as it relates to Australia and New Zealand, and I think we can do a whole lot more.’
True, CANZUK is smaller, but its annual population growth rate is three times more than the EU’s (0.6 per cent vs 0.2 per cent). This is hardly surprising given CANZUK is over four times larger in area. The scope is simply bigger, especially as climate change may open up more Canadian land, while CANZUK economies are much more complimentary (think Australian and Canada resources married with London’s financial heft).
Polling across all four states shows overwhelming support for CANZUK and freedom of movement between the four. Within Canada, it’s not just Carney’s view either. Opposition leader Pierre Poilievre is a CANZUK champion as was former Canadian Conservative leader Erin O’Toole.
If Carney is looking for a hedge against what he sees as an unfriendly Washington DC, he could do worse than cut a deal with the Commonwealth: complimentary economies open to free trade, unlike the incompatible economies of a moribund EU.
Carney must know Brussels is a dead end. If Canada teams up with Brussels, it will be in development purgatory for years. Associate membership is for the birds, and a ‘unique partnership’ probably is too. Canada should come home to CANZUK: a ready-made economic, political and defence alliance for our uncertain world.
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