As I write this, the Biden Administration has not produced evidence that the attack on the U.S. base in Jordan was carried out with the help of Iran. Despite that lack of evidence, the usual suspects in Washington are braying at full voice for the United States to strike Iran. This is one of the key rules of the “rules-based international order” (aka RBIO). If you provide the weapons to a third party that attacks me then you also are culpable for that crime. Do we all agree?

Well, if it is good for the goose then it must be good for the gander. The United States supplied Patriot Missiles to Ukraine and Ukraine used those missiles to attack and destroy a Russian aircraft ferrying Ukrainian prisoners of war to a site for a prisoner exchange. If it is okay for the U.S. to attack Iran and extract some measure of revenge, then it follows that Russia is entitled by the same principle to attack the United States. Are we still on the same page?

Aiding and abetting is a crime.

Aiding and abetting is a legal doctrine related to the guilt of someone who aids or abets (encourages, incites) another person in the commission of a crime (or in another’s suicide). It exists in a number of different countries and generally allows a court to pronounce someone guilty for aiding and abetting in a crime even if he or she is not the principal offender. The words aiding, abetting and accessory are closely used but have differences. While aiding means providing support or assistance to someone, abetting means encouraging someone else to commit a crime. Accessory is someone who in fact assists “commission of a crime committed primarily by someone else”.

Despite initial tough talk and belligerent threats against Iran, there are credible reports that the Biden Administration, at least some in the decision making circle, realize that attacking Iran directly will lead to an expanded war that the United States is not prepared to fight and cannot win. Emily Tanker at Yahoo News reports:

It was reported, that the U.S. offered through the Swiss embassy to Iran, to strike one of their sites but Iran should not retaliate. This would allow the US to save face. Looks like it was REJECTED:

“The US sent more than one message to Tehran over the past two days via third parties. Washington’s messages said that it did not want an open war and warned that expanding the war would be met with the US action. Tehran rejected Washington’s threats and said targeting its territory is a red line, and crossing the line would be met with an appropriate response. Tehran’s message said that it does not want a war with Washington either, but it will forcefully confront any American adventure.” — Iranian sources to AJArabic

The United States is caught between the proverbial dog and the fireplug. No matter what Biden decides to do the United States is going to get a good pissing. I am still of the opinion that the domestic political pressure on Biden to “act” decisively may propel him to do something both reckless and dangerous. I will be joyful to be proved wrong.

Meanwhile, with respect to Ukraine, the question arises — Who is singing John Denver’s hit song? Zaluzhny or Zelensky. First the song:

Who is packing their bags? My money is on Zelensky. His failed effort to force Zaluzhny out blew up in his face.

The technical term for what is transpiring among Ukraine’s political leadership is “shit show.” A country in the midst of a war with a powerful adversary cannot wage that war when the politicians and military leadership are sniping at each other. I think Zelensky’s days are numbered. While all of this drama is unfolding in Kiev, the Russians are making significant advances in the Donbass. Russian war correspondent Marat reports:

The main events in the Donetsk direction in the Bakhmut area are developing at the Kleshcheevka-Ivanovskoye-Bogdanovka line. Where our troops at a front of about 10 kilometers move forward in eight main directions at once. Moreover, progress is noted every day. This is one of the most dynamic and active sections of the entire front.

West of Kleshcheevka our 4th separate brigade, which includes the famous Prizrak battalion (LPR), together with the special forces Akhmat two days ago I knocked out the enemy from the dacha area and now continues to move towards Ivanovsky. From three sides at once – from the side of Kleshcheevka along the road that connects this village and Ivanovskoye. Along the main highway Bakhmut – Konstantinovka. And from the Khromovo side.

Now the main battles are taking place over the chain of heights in front of Ivanovsky. But there is already less than a kilometer left to Ivanovsky itself.

Ukraine’s lack of trained manpower, air defense and artillery shells has put it in a desperate situation. There is no sign that Kiev has the resources or capability to reverse this trajectory.