In November 2014, a man who had run the Barossa for 18 years handed over the keys. Nobody stood against his successor. There was no need.

The outgoing mayor was Brian Hurn. The new one was Bob Sloane.

Twelve years later, Hurn’s granddaughter and Sloane’s daughter are leading the Liberal Party in neighbouring states.

Ashton Hurn took the South Australian Liberals to the polls in March. Kellie Sloane will do the same in NSW next March. Both grew up in the Barossa. Both went to Nuriootpa High. They took over troubled oppositions within weeks of each other late last year, and when Hurn got the job, one of the first people she rang was Sloane.

Here’s what the pundits won’t tell you. The Barossa has raised two strong families, but it has only ever made room for one at a time.

For 18 years the chair belonged to Brian Hurn. In his final year his deputy was Bob Sloane. Only when the Hurn era ended did the Sloane era begin. When Brian Hurn died the following year, it was Mayor Sloane who paid tribute.

Now both families are back. Two women from the same valley, two elections 12 months apart.

Ashton Hurn went first, and she was dealt the harder hand. She took the leadership just over 100 days out, against a premier who had been there for years, with her party already written off and One Nation surging on its right. She fought hard in a contest few thought she could win, and she went down with her head held high. She never really had time to introduce herself, and a lot of voters were already in a mood to punish the Liberals. They finished under 19 per cent, behind One Nation.

The experts will blame the calendar, the brand, and the One Nation surge. They may be right, but they’re missing the valley.

One at a time. In 2014 that meant Sloane could only become mayor once Hurn stepped down. In 2026 it means only one of these women gets a clear shot at a premiership this time around. If Ashton Hurn had won in March, the turn would have been hers, and Kellie Sloane would have been fighting the pattern as well as Chris Minns.

Hurn fell short in a race almost nobody could have won. By the valley’s pattern, that leaves the turn with Sloane.

She’s used the time she’s had. Regional infrastructure, payroll tax cuts, tougher crime laws. She’s also been blunt with people looking elsewhere: if you want to change the government, only the Coalition can form one. The Coalition has held in the mid-20s.

Hurn is 35, still leading her party, and has time on her side. In the Barossa turns come back around, and hers will. But this one, it seems, belongs to Sloane.

Maybe the pattern breaks. Chris Minns had better hope so. He thinks he’s fighting an Opposition Leader. He is also fighting a valley with a very long memory, and only one seat at the top.

If the valley delivers, Kellie Sloane’s first call on election night should be to Nuriootpa High’s other famous graduate. To say thanks. And perhaps to send a case of Barossa red.

Osher Feldman is a rabbi and lawyer based in NSW.

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