UPDATE: Pennsylvania Midterm Results Fit Previously Identified Nationwide Pattern – the 85% -15% Rule Was in Play

Truth is Freedom posted an update on Pennsylvania’s 2026 midterm election results. The Truth is Freedom team found the results in Pennsylvania fit perfectly to a previously identified nationwide pattern in which Republicans systematically got only about 85% of a prior Republican benchmark from 2024, with the “missing” ~15% effectively shifting or benefiting Democrats in a suspiciously uniform way.

An algorithm set the results in the 2026 midterm elections in state-after-state before any ballots were counted.

Truth Is Freedom has been highlighting a pattern across many 2026 Senate and governor races: Republican candidates received roughly 85% of Trump’s 2024 vote share (or an equivalent prior Republican baseline), while Democrats received Harris’s 2024 share plus about 15% of Trump’s share. They call this the “15% band,” “0.85 formula,” or “15% diversion.”

What they found in Pennsylvania specifically:
Looking at the governor’s race (comparing 2026 to the 2022 gubernatorial race):

Republican side: Stacy Garrity (2026) received about 85.5% of the raw votes that Doug Mastriano got in 2022 statewide (roughly 1.91 million vs. ~2.24 million).

This drop was remarkably consistent: every single one of Pennsylvania’s 67 counties saw a decline in Republican votes, and the county-level percentages clustered tightly (mostly between about 77% and 92% of the 2022 Republican total), centered around that 85.5% mark.

Democratic side: Josh Shapiro’s 2026 vote total was essentially flat compared with his 2022 total (nearly identical statewide numbers, around 3.03 million), with more variation by county (ranging from well below to above 100% of his prior total).

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