Likewise, Labor, which polled poorly at the 2019 federal election in the region, was keen to see how voters would respond to the Party’s recent attempts to refocus its policy agenda towards its traditional base of mining and blue-collar communities.

Ultimately, the Nationals – which have held the seat for more than 90 years – retained control (albeit with a marginal drop in votes), while the ALP suffered a major swing against it, losing seven per cent of the primary vote compared to its previous result in 2019.

FACTORS

Senator Birmingham said, “It was a State by-election, and I would treat it as such.”

“It had a range of different factors at play, and certainly many of them were very much local, very much State politics,” he told ABC radio on Monday.

Meanwhile, Deputy Federal Labor leader Richard Marles played down the defeat, saying he would not be rushing to overreact to the result. “Ultimately, the incumbent won,” he told Sky News Australia on Sunday.

In Australia, typically, incumbent governments poll poorly or lose by-elections.

LOST CAUSE

Despite Mr Marles’ comments, the loss has caused concern for the ALP with Labor MP for the region, Joel Fitzgibbon, threatening to quit the party.

“I plan to run for Labor at the next federal election,” he told reporters in Canberra on Monday. “But I will say this; I won’t stick around if the Labor Party doesn’t wake up to itself.”

The ALP has struggled in recent years to balance the interests of its traditional working-class voters – which featured heavily in Hunter – and its newer inner-city, Left-leaning base, who are interested in action on climate change.

In 2019, Fitzgibbon nearly lost his seat when voters reacted negatively to the federal ALP’s green energy and taxation agenda.

Fitzgibbon subsequently has been vocal on the need for the ALP to bolster support for blue-collar workers and has been at odds with ALP leadership on the issue.

In November 2020, the MP quit the shadow cabinet to move to the backbench after disagreements over the Party’s support for climate change policy.

SUSPICIOUS

Fitzgibbon said voters were still suspicious over whether or not the ALP still supports the industry.

“We have been at best whispering. We have tried to walk both sides of the fence on issues like work and, on the other side, the environment. They’re suspicious and sceptical,” he told 2GB radio on Monday.

The NSW Labor Party attempted to shore up support in the electorate by appointing former coal miner Jeff Drayton to stand as a candidate. However, one in three voters ended up ignoring the incumbent Liberal-National government and the ALP, instead siding with independents and minor parties.