Europe depends on U.S. intelligence because it lacks comparable satellite, surveillance, and collection capabilities, while European replacements remain years away.

Europe depends on the United States for intelligence because it never built the systems the U.S. operates. It has no missile early-warning satellites, few reconnaissance satellites, and no EU-level intelligence service capable of collecting intelligence. It relies on U.S.-built AWACS aircraft and surveillance drones, along with a U.S.-sponsored NATO fusion centre. Funded European replacements are not expected to become operational until 2029 or the early 2030s.

On the evening of October 12, Russia fired five Iskander-M ballistic missiles at Kyiv from its Bryansk region, according to the Ukrainian Air Force. The missiles hit civilian infrastructure. In a Facebook post, Zelensky said, “There was no warning from our partners regarding this strike.” He did not identify the partner involved.

Air Force spokesman Yurii Ihnat said Ukraine receives intelligence from partners on Russian strategic aviation, ships in the Black and Caspian Seas, and ballistic missile launches from Russia’s northern regions and occupied Crimea. He said this information sometimes fails to reach Ukraine, cited technical issues, and noted that this was not the first such instance. The Air Force is investigating why it received no launch information.

The EU’s Institute for Security Studies reported that U.S. satellites provide round-the-clock intelligence across the entire front line. It concluded that Europe’s ability to match the quality and quantity of that intelligence is limited.

Europe’s own defense also relies on American support. NATO’s Intelligence Fusion Centre, which provides all-source intelligence to the alliance, is a U.S.-sponsored organization.

Space-based missile launch warnings for Ukraine and NATO come from American satellites. The U.S. Space Force has launched 12 satellites carrying SBIRS or STSS missile-warning payloads. Its replacement constellation, Next Gen OPIR, will add five more. Allies receive the data through the Shared Early Warning System, a U.S.-only program that distributes American missile-warning data to select foreign nations.

Europe has no operational equivalent. The EU’s space-based early-warning program, ODIN’S EYE, began in 2021 as a €7.5 million EU-funded study, followed by a €90 million design-phase contract in 2023. Germany and France have since signed an agreement to implement the system. Their joint JEWEL framework targets initial capability in the early 2030s.

NATO’s airborne surveillance fleet is also American-built. The alliance’s 14 AWACS aircraft are Boeing E-3 Sentries. NATO chose the Boeing E-7 as their replacement in 2023 but abandoned the plan after the U.S. Air Force withdrew in July 2025.

In July 2026, NATO selected Saab’s GlobalEye, with replacement aircraft due by 2035. NATO also collectively owns five U.S.-built RQ-4D ground surveillance drones, based on the U.S. Air Force’s Global Hawk.

European countries operate reconnaissance satellites, but in small numbers. France operates three CSO optical satellites and three CERES signals intelligence satellites.

Germany’s military operates the three-satellite SARah radar system alongside five older SAR-Lupe satellites. SARah’s satellites were launched on SpaceX Falcon 9 rockets, illustrating dependence on American launch services. Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, has no satellite system of its own and depends on commercial satellite operators.

Much of the commercial imagery available to the West is purchased through Washington. In May 2022, the National Reconnaissance Office awarded imagery contracts to Maxar, Planet and BlackSky, with options extending through 2032. Maxar’s contract is worth up to $3.24 billion and BlackSky’s up to $1.02 billion, according to company filings. The National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency separately awarded Maxar a contract worth up to $192 million to supply imagery to unidentified allied nations.

European governments also purchase imagery directly from American companies. In January 2025, the Netherlands Ministry of Defense awarded Maxar a €13.6 million contract for four years of platform access, including the ability to task its satellites. Ukraine could still buy commercial imagery directly during the March 2025 suspension of its access to the U.S. government portal.

The main European commercial alternative is Finland’s ICEYE. Germany funded additional ICEYE radar imagery for Ukraine through a contract with Rheinmetall.

The intelligence spending gap between the U.S. and Europe is enormous. For fiscal year 2026, the U.S. requested $81.9 billion for the National Intelligence Program and $33.6 billion for the Military Intelligence Program, totaling $115.5 billion. That compares with about £4.6 billion for Britain’s agencies, €1.51 billion for Germany’s BND, and €1.3 billion for France’s DGSE and DRSD. The fiscal year 2027 U.S. military intelligence request rose to $50 billion.

The EU has no intelligence-collection service or budget of its own to close that gap. Its civilian intelligence body, the EU Intelligence and Situation Centre (INTCEN), has no collection capability and no separate budget; its staff and funding come from the European External Action Service. INTCEN analyzes only the intelligence that member states voluntarily provide.

An earlier attempt by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen to establish an EU intelligence-collection service was blocked by national governments. The EU Satellite Centre, the EU’s geospatial intelligence agency, operated on an overall budget of €34 million (approximately $38 million) with 141 staff in 2018.

The core signals intelligence partnership also excludes continental Europe. Five Eyes is an intelligence alliance comprising Australia, Canada, New Zealand, the United Kingdom and the United States. Its members share signals intelligence: information collected by intercepting communications and electronic emissions, including radio, radar and telecommunications traffic. France and Germany are not members.

NATO’s shared budget does not cover these capabilities. The alliance’s common-funded budgets total up to €5.3 billion (approximately $5.93 billion) for 2026. The U.S. share is 14.9 percent, the same as Germany’s. NATO states that national contributions are the largest component of its funding. The American satellites, early-warning network, and intelligence agencies on which the alliance relies are funded through U.S. national budgets.

Europe has begun funding replacements, but delivery remains years away. The EU’s IRIS² secure communications constellation has a €10.6 billion budget (approximately $11.86 billion), with deployment scheduled for 2029–2030.

Germany plans SATCOMBw4, a network of about 200 military satellites valued at €10 billion. The first approximately 40 satellites could enter service from 2029, as part of €35 billion in German space security spending planned through 2030. France has contracted a successor to CERES, due by 2032. Until these systems become operational, Europe will remain dependent on U.S. intelligence and face significant gaps if Washington restricts access.

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