by ROGER CROOK – A CIVIL war within a Western nation by 2030 is an 80 per cent certainty – with the UK being most likely, according to a leading military academic.
Professor of Modern War at London’s Kings College, Prof David Betz, says his research indicates that “in the near future a civil war, or massive civil disobedience, will break out in Europe, the UK or the USA.
- This is the case in areas where migrants have congregated across Europe, America and now in Australia?
- The trend doesn’t appear to bother the ever-increasing bureaucratic elites; they welcome it.
- They disparage the fostering and the defence of national identity and customs.
He puts the probability of a civil war starting within the next five years in one of ten countries in Europe at 80 per cent; and there’s a 60 per cent chance that it will quickly metastasise across all ten countries.
His calculations predict that the most likely country for such an event is not America, but the UK.
KNOW LITTLE
Australia was not mentioned in any of Betz interviews or broadcasts, the reason I have presumed is because very few if any scholars studying human behaviour in the UK and Europe know little if anything about what is happening in Australia in 2025.
Perhaps the reason for that lack of knowledge and interest is because we are the lone outpost of western democracy, isolated at the other end of the world; neither part of Asia nor part of anywhere, really; something our current crop of government ministers would do well to remember.
Years ago, at an agricultural conference in the American Mid-West I was introduced as an Australian speaker and congratulated by the Chairman on my good English. I doubt that in 2025 much has changed.
In Australia we are, if nothing else, dedicated followers of fashion. Where others go, we are sure to follow. What happens to be trending in Europe and America is soon all the rage in Australia.
When George Floyd died in Minneapolis in 2020, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement quickly appeared on Australian streets; together with the chants and the implied violence from those who were obviously part of a rent-a-crowd.
In Melbourne it was obvious that many of those protesters were enjoying breaking the COVID curfew and yelling obscenities, with impunity, at passive police.
Some police officers were observed showing their support of the BLM by “taking the knee”.
Later that year after those “peaceful” BLM marches, the people of Melbourne marched again, twice; this to time show their anger and frustration on having been subjected to months and months of continuous lockdowns.
This time police did not just watch the anti-lockdown protesters as they had the BLM marches; this time they donned full riot body armour, including shields and batons.
Some of them carried projectile launchers (some kind of gun) and they fired a range of non-life threatening projectiles including pepper spray and rubber bullets at the crowds.
One demonstration finished with police advancing and firing on demonstrators who were standing on the steps of the Shrine of Remembrance.
As the flags waved and the guns barked, I was reminded of pictures of the miners defending the Eureka Stockade as the troopers advanced.
Up until a few years ago it was recognised that apart from in Northern Ireland – where violence was fuelled by centuries old antipathy between Catholic and Protestant – that the British, generally, were not a nation disposed to demonstration.
Recent events have changed that view. Many were horrified at the tens of thousands who took to the streets all over the Britain in support of the Palestine movement; chanting for the elimination of Israel and all Jews.
The British saw for themselves the power of the crowds and the fragility of law and order; how in many cases the police struggled and just how quickly their British way of life was changing.
COPIED
Those anti-Semitic marches were quickly copied here in Australia. How close did they come to widespread violence? We can only guess.
Could the defacing of Jewish property and the burning of a synagogue have escalated? Could, under different circumstances, the appalling demonstrations on the steps of the Opera House have become physically violent?
Observing the almost manic fervour of the crowd on that night, being whipped into a frenzy by their Mullahs, no one would have been surprised if it had.
Prof Betz believes these are the situations and conditions which will cause wide scale civil disobedience and violence, similar or worse to that which Northern Ireland endured.
It is easy to realise that in Australia today, there are many people just waiting for the chance to march again, no matter the cause.
Betz believes that the catalyst for this serious civil disobedience, even war, started with mass migration; he comments that both UK Prime Minister David Cameron and German Chancellor Angela Merkel warned in 2017, that multiculturalism had failed.
Cameron called for better integration of young Muslims to combat home-made extremism.
We could add to that call by Cameron, the observations made by Enoch Powell in his “Rivers of Blood” speech given to a meeting of the Conservative Political Centre in Birmingham in 1968.
Powells topic was a Race Relations Bill, which contained proposals with which Powel disagreed.
He told his audience of his personal observations on migration into the UK, he embellished those observations with examples given to him by his constituents on the problems they were facing and the concerns they had as migration increased.
Near the end of his speech Powell said: “For these dangerous and divisive elements the legislation proposed in the Race Relations Bill is the very pabulum they need to flourish.
“Here is the means of showing that the immigrant communities can organise to consolidate their members, to agitate and campaign against their fellow citizens, and to overawe and dominate the rest with the legal weapons which the ignorant and the ill-informed have provided.
“As I look ahead, I am filled with foreboding; like the Roman, I seem to see ‘the River Tiber foaming with much blood’.”
Powell’s opinion and predictions caused him to be dismissed from his shadow portfolio; his speech was condemned by his colleagues; but it resonated with many of his constituents and the general public.
Look at Powell’s fears and ask is that not now the case in many areas where migrants have congregated over Europe, America and now in Australia?
STRUGGLE
As many governments struggle with both legal and illegal migration across Europe, the UK and America; Betz believes they are not paying sufficient attention to how migration is affecting the native populations.
The British and the Europeans who can trace their families back for many hundreds of years are, Betz claims, beginning to feel disenfranchised and marginalised. Those feeling are particularly strong among the millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996).
It is the millennials who are currently in their family forming years having entered the workforce during the Great Financial Crisis (GFC) and experienced COVID during their careers.
In the UK and probably in most countries and almost certainly in Australia, the millennials are the first generation in history to have earned less than their parents and grandparents at that age. In the UK to the tune of £8,000 a year.
The migration of millions of Muslims has put dangerous pressures on governments across Europe.
In almost every country there is now a housing shortage and consequently the price of a house is now beyond the reach of many, particularly the millennials.
This is causing resentment and a fracturing in many societies; established habits and customs have been challenged; the future has become uncertain.
They expected that life would continue to be the same for their children as it had been for them; there was, they believed, an orthodoxy to their life, which had been established over many, many generations.
Resentment – even anger – has surfaced as those traditions and unwritten customs are now splintering before their eyes.
As predicted by Enoch Powell, migrant controlled suburbs are appearing and in some cases are already established in key cities across Europe and America.
The new migrant residents in these suburbs are making their own laws, speaking their own languages and in many cases actively resisting the customs and laws of their new land.
Betz claims that in the British city of Birmingham, the home of some eight million people, there are now areas of no-go for the police; the upholders of the law he says, are obliged to negotiate with the local ethnic community leaders before they can investigate crime and make arrests.
In Australia approximately six million people (23 per cent) speak a language other than English at home. There are already suburbs in Sydney and Melbourne that are a microcosm of another place in a far off land.
This trend does not appear to bother the ever increasing number of post-national elites in the community; they may even welcome it.
Post-national elites are the people who do not recognise national identity or national borders; they are internationalists, part of a one world community.
They can be found in education, the universities, the arts, international business and most importantly and particularly in politics.
In Australia we have witnessed international loyalties and friendships of the past, like our friendship with Israel and America being ignored even deprecated in favour of the political ideology of international socialism.
Post-national elites work at weakening national objectives in favour of globalisation, climate change, and a World Economic Forum or government through the aegis of Davos; they disparage the fostering and the defence of national identity and customs.
We can now see how the millennials; I would argue just as many in generation X, were influenced by the opinions of their teachers who were fostered in our universities and inserted into our education systems.
The talking down by these elites of the importance of national identity; the denigration of history, particularly where settlement occurred 200 to 300 years ago has eroded the pride of national identity held by previous generations.
BIAS
Their teachings have created bias, confusion and doubt in the minds of many of our young on the value of national identity and of being true to one’s country; of being a patriot rather than a citizen of the world.
Across the free world uncontrolled migration, whether legal or illegal has contributed to a worrying loss of national identity; a loss that is diluting the unique national characteristics that in the past defined a country and bound its people together under one flag.
Britain’s first mosque was built in Liverpool in 1889. There are now more than 1500 mosques in the UK. The call to prayers can be heard every day in the grounds of Christian churches that have closed.
Society faces what is known as the “expectation gap”. The young are disappointed and disillusioned at the disparity between what they were led to expect and what is being delivered.
So what will be the spark to start this civil war, this Northern Ireland disturbance and riots which will in all probability start in the UK and metastasise across Europe?
Betz believes it will happen in summer time and it could be a small spark that lights the fire of revolution.
An incident like the murder of the three little girls in the North West of England and the immediate claim on social media that the murderer was an illegal migrant and probably a Muslim, is all that will be needed.
SUICIDE
Maybe another attack at a music concert like the one in 2017 that was detonated by suicide bomber Salman Abedi in Manchester killing many 23 young people? That attack was one of five mass casualty attacks in the UK in 2017.
Betz considers that, unlike the riots which started in Southport, the next riots will be better managed and coordinated.
National patriotism has many followers in Europe and the UK, especially among the young who are increasingly feeling they are being pushed aside by waves migrants.
The patriots see their hotels and motels full of migrants paid for by their government when they can’t afford a holiday.
With housing out of reach and rents unaffordable, the use of taxpayer money to house those who have illegally entered the country, is a dry tinder issue waiting for a spark.
Betz believes a big city with seven or eight million residents, like London or Birmingham will be the first target; and those leading the “war” will work from the country to the city.
The first target could well be the vital services on which the cities depend, like power and water.
Blow up some of the pylons, contaminate the water, disable the gas compression facilities and there would be chaos.
Without power and services, cities will collapse. No bakeries, no supermarkets or fast food outlets; disrupt transport of food from the country and from the wharves and there will be rationing. Stop the delivery of fuel and the nation stops.
Could this happen in Australia? PC
Pertinent article. We saw a hint of things to come quite recently in Sydney. An eastern Christian priest was attacked with a knife by a Muslim youth who was arrested by NSW’s finest. The Muslim leadership were outraged that the youth was arrested without prior notice being given to them. It doesn’t take too much imagination to see where this exercise in contempt for the authority of the State leads. Then there are the sharia courts, a shadow justice system enforcing Muslim values.
We need a national conversation about these developments. However, the anti-racial discrimination laws under-pinning the HRC and the state-based Equalities legislation are effective in limiting freedom of speech.
On the subject of para-military activity in the UK, it won’t take long for some of the 100,000 former military to work out that once they control the M25, they can strangle London.